Dollar Rises on Strong US Jobs, Yen Gains as Gold Holds Firm (01.13.2025)

EUR/USD Falls as Strong US Jobs Report Boosts Dollar

The EUR/USD pair fell on Monday after Friday's decline. The dollar index held at 109.6, supported by a stronger US jobs report showing 256,000 job gains in December, above the 160,000 forecast. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, while wage growth met expectations at 0.3%. Traders now anticipate the Fed will keep rates steady in upcoming meetings, with only one quarter-point cut expected this year, down from January's projection of 50 basis points. Focus shifts to US inflation data and Fed comments for policy insights.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0270, with further resistance levels at 1.0350 and 1.0460 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0125, followed by additional support levels at 1.0100 and 1.0050. 

Yen Strengthens to 157.5 on Deflation Concerns and Global Risks

The Japanese yen strengthened to 157.5 per dollar on Monday, marking a third day of gains in light holiday trading. Support came from speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise inflation forecasts, signaling possible rate hikes. Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa called the economy "critical" in overcoming deflation but gave no timeline for BOJ action. Safe-haven demand also resulted in a stronger yen amid strong U.S. data and hawkish Fed expectations, which fuels global risk-off sentiment.

The key resistance level appears to be 158.60, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 154.90 is the first major support, followed by 153.40 and 152.40 if the price moves lower.  

Safe-Haven Demand Keeps Gold Firm Despite Strong US Jobs Data

Gold held steady at $2,685 per ounce on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over President-elect Trump’s policies. Proposed tariffs could spark trade wars and inflation, increasing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. However, a stronger U.S. jobs report raised hopes of a robust economy and slower Fed rate cuts, potentially pressuring gold as higher rates reduce its attractiveness.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2725 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2750 and 2790 consequently. On the downside 2660 will be the first support level. 2630 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached. 

GBP/USD Pressured by Diverging UK-US Economic Outlooks

GBP/USD edged up 0.07% to $1.2204 on Monday, staying near a 14-month low of $1.223. The pound remains pressured by rising borrowing costs and fiscal concerns, while uncertainty over the Bank of England's actions weighs on sentiment. Meanwhile, strong U.S. economic data and a robust jobs report support the dollar, with diverging outlooks between the UK and the U.S. keeping GBP/USD under pressure and limiting short-term rallies.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2190. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2265 and 1.2350. On the downside 1.2100 will be the first support level. 1.2080 and 1.2000 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

Spot Silver Holds Ground as Markets Eye U.S. Inflation Data

Spot silver held steady at $30.2 per ounce, reflecting limited movement amid mixed factors. While gold benefits from inflation concerns and a cautious Fed, silver remains more volatile, influenced by both inflation hedging and industrial demand. The upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed speeches could impact Silver’s outlook, with broader market sentiment also shaping its performance.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 30.35 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 30.70 and 31.00 consequently. On the downside 29.85 will be the first support level. 28.50 and 28.00 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.