Dollar Strength Continues Ahead of Central Banks (03.17.2026)

Markets remained cautious as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured major currency pairs ahead of key central bank decisions. 

EUR/USD slipped below 1.1500 amid fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing energy-related risks in Europe. The Japanese yen weakened again despite intervention warnings, while sterling hovered near critical support levels under persistent selling pressure. Precious metals showed limited recovery, with gold stabilizing near $5,020 as geopolitical tensions capped upside, while silver edged higher on easing oil prices and softer yields. Investor focus now shifts to upcoming Fed and ECB policy signals, which are expected to drive near-term market direction.

EUR/USD Breaches 1.1500

The EUR/USD dipped below 1.1500 as a resurgent dollar gained ground, fueled by fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent energy crisis fears continue to stifle the euro, adding further weight to the pair. However, significant losses may be capped as traders move to the sidelines ahead of critical policy announcements from both the Fed and the ECB later this week.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1550, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1420.

Yen Weakens Amid Intervention Threats

The Japanese yen slipped toward 159.5 per dollar on Tuesday, erasing recent gains as verbal warnings from Tokyo failed to halt its decline. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama described the moves as disconnected from economic fundamentals and reiterated that authorities are ready to take "bold steps" at any moment to protect households from rising import costs and oil prices. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target. Despite this, the central bank is expected to hold interest rates at 0.75% this week due to economic uncertainty stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Technically, resistance stands near 160.40, while support is firm at 158.30.

Gold Rebounds Near $5,020

Gold edged higher to $5,020 per ounce, recovering slightly after testing its lowest levels in a month. Investors remain focused on the intensifying conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which has entered its third week. While Tehran has increased strikes on regional energy hubs, President Donald Trump has warned of further potential hits to Iran’s Kharg Island oil facilities. These rising energy risks have heightened inflation fears, suggesting that central banks may keep interest rates elevated, which continues to cap gold's upward momentum.

Gold sees support near $4950, while resistance is around $5120.

GBP/USD Pressured Toward 1.3300

GBP/USD is currently testing the 1.3300 support as a dominant bearish trend persists. A break below this level could drive the pair toward its three-month low of 1.3218. Technical signals, including a 14-day RSI near 39, indicate ongoing selling pressure. On the upside, immediate resistance is found at the nine-day EMA around 1.3349.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3240, with resistance around 1.3370.

Silver Recovers Above $81

Silver climbed past $81 per ounce, supported by a retreating dollar and lower Treasury yields as cooling oil prices eased inflation fears. The retreat in crude followed reports of tankers successfully navigating the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that the U.S. is not currently blocking Iranian crude exports, while President Trump seeks an international coalition to secure the waterway. Meanwhile, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this week as they navigate the economic complexities of the ongoing Iran conflict.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $83.20 while support is located around $78.90.