Energy Uncertainty Keeps the Pressure (03.11.2026)

Global markets remained cautious as investors weighed the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices. 

The euro stayed near two-month lows around $1.16 as rising energy costs threatened to reignite inflation across the eurozone and complicate the European Central Bank’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened further amid conflicting signals about the duration of the conflict and Japan’s vulnerability to energy shocks. Precious metals moved higher as gold climbed above $5,200 on continued geopolitical risk, while sterling recovered modestly as optimism over easing energy pressures helped investors step away from the U.S. dollar.

Euro Pressured by Energy Risks

The euro traded near $1.16, remaining close to its recent two-month lows as investors assessed the Iran conflict’s impact on energy prices and ECB policy. Markets found some relief after President Trump suggested military operations were ahead of schedule and could conclude sooner than the initial five-week estimate. Also, oil prices dipped below $100 per barrel following hints of US energy cost controls. However, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned that prolonged Middle East instability could trigger sharp inflation and economic stagnation. Current market pricing now reflects at least one 25-basis-point ECB rate hike for 2026.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1670, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1550.

Yen Weakens Amid Mixed Signals

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen slipped beyond 158 per dollar as Middle East uncertainty supported the Dollar. Conflicting messages from the Trump administration added to the volatility. While the President suggested an early end to the Iran conflict, other officials noted intensifying military operations. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards rejected any claims of a quick resolution and maintained their blockade. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped following reports of a potential record release from IEA strategic reserves. Although Japan’s February producer prices rose just 2%, which was the slowest in two years, the nation remains highly vulnerable to energy shocks.

Technically, resistance stands near 159.00, while support is firm at 157.20.

Gold Rises Amid War Signals

Gold climbed to approximately $5,210 per ounce on Wednesday, extending gains as intensifying Middle East conflict fueled market uncertainty. The Pentagon's announcement of record strikes against Iran suggested a prolonged operation, contradicting President Trump’s earlier hints at a quick resolution. Further confusion emerged as the White House denied reports of US Navy tanker escorts, directly opposing statements from the Energy Secretary. Investors now focus on upcoming US inflation data, which likely remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. As a result, traders have scaled back monetary easing expectations, now pricing in only a single rate cut for 2026.

Gold sees support near $5110, while resistance is around $5270.

Sterling Recovers on Optimism

The British pound rose to approximately $1.346, recovering from a three-month low of $1.335 hit on March 3. This rebound occurred as investors moved away from the US dollar following President Trump’s efforts to calm markets. Concerns over energy-driven inflation eased. Market expectations for the Bank of England have shifted again, with traders now pricing in a 50% probability of a rate cut by September.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3350, with resistance around 1.3480.

Silver Rebounds to $89

Silver rose to nearly $89 per ounce on Tuesday, recovering from a brief dip below $80. A softening US dollar supported this move as safe-haven demand faded following President Trump’s optimistic comments. He stated that military operations in Iran are exceeding expectations and could conclude ahead of the initial five-week timeline. Trump also proposed easing oil sanctions and using US Navy escorts in the Strait of Hormuz to stabilize global markets. While the dollar previously gained on inflation fears, investors are now shifting focus toward upcoming US inflation data to assess the broader economic landscape.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $90.50 while support is located around $86.30.