The euro held above $1.16 on Tuesday as traders awaited the ECB’s policy decision, with rates expected to stay on hold amid tariff concerns and recent euro strength.
The yen remained firm at 147.5 after Japan’s election, while the pound climbed to $1.35 as the dollar weakened ahead of key UK data. Gold eased slightly but stayed near a five-week high, reflecting caution ahead of the August 1 US tariff deadline. Meanwhile, silver surged to $38.9, reaching a 13-year high on safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | - | - |
| 17:00 | USD | FOMC Bowman Speaks | - | - |
| 17:00 | EUR | ECB Lagarde Speaks | - | - |
The euro stayed above $1.16 as investors looked ahead to the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday, where rates are expected to remain steady following eight previous cuts. Caution prevails among policymakers amid ongoing uncertainty linked to US tariffs and the euro’s recent strength. At the same time, EU officials are preparing backup strategies in case trade negotiations with the US break down before the August 1 deadline.
Resistance for the pair is at 1.1700, while support is at 1.1660.
| R1: 1.1700 | S1: 1.1660 |
| R2: 1.1750 | S2: 1.1590 |
| R3: 1.1830 | S3: 1.1500 |
The yen hovered around 147.5 per dollar on Tuesday, holding its 1% gain as markets digested Japan’s election outcome. Despite the ruling coalition losing its upper house majority, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is likely to stay in office, easing political concerns. Ishiba confirmed his continued involvement in US trade negotiations. Meanwhile, opposition parties are expected to advocate for fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, which could pressure the yen and push bond yields higher. Trade discussions with the US remain on schedule for the August 1 deadline.
Resistance is at 147.75, with major support at 146.15.
| R1: 147.75 | S1: 146.15 |
| R2: 148.30 | S2: 145.30 |
| R3: 159.30 | S3: 144.65 |
Resistance is at $3,400, while support holds at $3,375.
| R1: 3400 | S1: 3375 |
| R2: 3430 | S2: 3310 |
| R3: 3500 | S3: 3285 |
The pound climbed to $1.35 as the US dollar weakened broadly, though caution prevailed ahead of the August 1 US tariff deadline. In the UK, attention turns to upcoming flash PMI data, expected to show stronger manufacturing and strong services performance, along with a rebound in retail sales. The Bank of England may reduce long-bond sales due to soft demand. Markets still anticipate two rate cuts in 2025, despite a slight pullback in those expectations.
Resistance is at 1.3500, while support holds at 1.3380.
| R1: 1.3500 | S1: 1.3380 |
| R2: 1.3550 | S2: 1.3270 |
| R3: 1.3630 | S3: 1.3140 |
Silver jumped to $38.9, marking its highest level since August 2011, supported by lower US yields and a weaker dollar. Fed Governor Waller signaled support for a July rate cut, pointing to softer labor data and slowing core inflation, while downplaying the impact of tariff-related price pressures. In addition, China’s efforts to strengthen key industrial sectors increased metal demand forecasts. ETF inflows into precious metals also increased, highlighting rising safe-haven interest.
Resistance is at 39.50, while support holds at 37.40.
| R1: 39.50 | S1: 37.40 |
| R2: 40.10 | S2: 35.50 |
| R3: 41.90 | S3: 33.90 |
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