Global markets climbed as weak U.S. jobs data (22,000 new payrolls, unemployment at 4.3%) increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4%, its lowest in five months, with traders pricing in at least a 25 bps cut and watching this week’s PPI and CPI.
Gold surged above $3,650 to record highs, supported by lower yields, a softer dollar, and safe-haven demand after U.S. sanction threats on Russia. Oil extended gains, with Brent above $66 and WTI near $62, after OPEC+ confirmed only a modest October output increase of 137,000 bpd.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 crossed 44,000 for the first time, driven by stronger GDP and expectations of fiscal and monetary support following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation and progress on a U.S.-Japan auto tariff deal.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | ||
| 14:00 | USD | Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a | -598.00K | |
| 17:00 | USD | 3-Year Note Auction | 3.669% | |
| 20:30 | USD | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.622M |
EUR/USD trades near 1.1780 in Asia, extending gains for a third day as a weaker dollar follows soft August jobs data. Markets now price a 90% chance of a 25 bps Fed cut in September and a 10% chance of 50 bps. Traders await the NFP Benchmark Revision and key inflation data, with PPI due Wednesday and CPI Thursday.
Resistance is at 1.1800, with key support at 1.1700.
| R1: 1.1800 | S1: 1.1700 |
| R2: 1.1840 | S2: 1.1660 |
| R3: 1.1880 | S3: 1.1620 |
The Japanese yen firmed to 147.3 per dollar on Tuesday, extending gains as the U.S. dollar weakened on expectations of aggressive Fed easing. Markets anticipate downward revisions to U.S. employment data from April 2024 to March 2025, raising concerns that the Fed lags its mandate. Traders now price an 89% chance of a 25 bps cut next week, with some seeing 50 bps. In Japan, investors weigh the political fallout from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, tied to party divisions and last year’s election loss, which has also stalled progress on a U.S.–Japan trade deal.
For USD/JPY, the nearest resistance is at 149.30, while the immediate support is at 146.60.
| R1: 149.30 | S1: 146.60 |
| R2: 150.90 | S2: 145.80 |
| R3: 154.50 | S3: 144.00 |
Gold extended its record rally for a third day, climbing above $3,650 in Tuesday’s Asian session. The surge is driven by Fed cut bets after weak U.S. jobs data, with markets pricing in up to three reductions this year. The weaker dollar, along with political instability in Japan and France, increased safe-haven demand. Momentum remains strong, though overbought conditions could cap gains ahead of U.S. inflation data (PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday).
Gold is currently facing resistance around $3,670, with strong support near $3,625.
| R1: 3670 | S1: 3625 |
| R2: 3700 | S2: 3570 |
| R3: 3730 | S3: 3500 |
GBP/USD climbed to 1.3560 on Tuesday, its highest since August 15, as the dollar weakened on expectations of aggressive Fed cuts. Friday’s weak jobs report showed slower hiring and the highest unemployment since 2021, fueling speculation that the Fed is behind on its mandate. Analysts see a downward revision of up to 800,000 jobs in the April 2024–March 2025 NFP Benchmark, which could further support easing. Markets now price an 89.4% chance of a 25 bps September cut and a 10.6% chance of a 50 bps move, per CME FedWatch.
The first resistance is seen at 1.3600, with nearby support beginning at 1.3420.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3420 |
| R2: 1.3675 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3770 | S3: 1.3300 |
Silver (XAG/USD) extended gains for a third straight session, trading near $41.40 in Tuesday’s Asian hours. The rally is fueled by expectations of a jumbo Fed cut after weak labor data, with August’s NFP showing just 22K jobs versus the 75K forecast. The cooling job market strengthens the case for easing, lowering the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. Geopolitical tensions and trade war concerns also add safe-haven demand, with IBJA’s Haresh Acharya noting that Fed cut bets and risk aversion are driving the surge.
The first resistance at $42.00 and support at $40.40.
| R1: 42.00 | S1: 40.40 |
| R2: 42.40 | S2: 39.80 |
| R3: 43.40 | S3: 38.20 |
Bond Market Pushback Takes Center StageMarkets are almost fully pricing in another Federal Reserve rate cut this week, yet the US bond market continues to move in the opposite direction.
Detail
Central Bank Expectations Reset the Tone (8-12 December)Traders adjusted positioning before the Federal Reserve’s December decision and evaluated fresh signals from the ECB, BoE and BOJ.
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