A modest recovery in the U.S. dollar weighed on major currencies and precious metals into the end of the week.
EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1900 as technical signals turned softer, while the yen eased but stayed on track for its first monthly gain since August. Gold and silver pulled back from record highs on profit-taking, though both are set to post historic monthly gains. Sterling also edged lower as U.S. shutdown risks faded and markets looked ahead to next week’s Bank of England meeting.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 13:30 | EUR | German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 16:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16:30 | USD | PPI (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 17:45 | USD | Chicago PMI (Jan) | 43.5 | 43.5 |

EUR/USD broke below its 100-hour moving average on Friday as a modest dollar recovery pressured the pair. Technical signals currently favor sellers, with further declines expected if prices clear the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders are now watching for a decisive move under 1.1900 to confirm an extended bearish shift.
Momentum remains constructive, with 1.1950 in focus on the upside, while 1.1810 defines nearby support.
| R1: 1.1950 | S1: 1.1810 |
| R2: 1.2000 | S2: 1.1760 |
| R3: 1.2050 | S3: 1.1680 |

The Japanese yen eased toward 154 per dollar on Friday but remains on track for its first monthly increase since August. Despite the lack of official intervention, the currency has risen nearly 2% this month, rebounding 4.6% from its January lows. Speculation intensified after reports that the New York Fed conducted rate checks, though U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed these rumors. Bessent reaffirmed Washington's commitment to a "strong dollar" policy, tempering the yen’s recent four month peak.
Technically, resistance stands near 153.90, while support is firm at 153.20.
| R1: 153.90 | S1: 153.20 |
| R2: 155.10 | S2: 152.50 |
| R3: 155.80 | S3: 151.80 |

Gold slipped to around $5,200 per ounce on Friday as investors secured profits following a record breaking run. Despite this retreat, bullion is finishing January with a gain exceeding 20%, its most impressive monthly showing since the 1980s. The broader surge continues to be fueled by a weaker dollar and rising geopolitical friction. Most recently, President Trump signed an executive order targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba, a move that increases economic pressure on Mexico and further stokes global trade uncertainty.
Technically, resistance stands near 5300, while support is firm at 5150.
| R1: 5300 | S1: 5150 |
| R2: 5340 | S2: 5110 |
| R3: 5440 | S3: 5050 |

GBP/USD dipped toward 1.3750 on Friday as the U.S. Senate progressed a spending deal to avert a government shutdown. This potential resolution provided a modest lift to the dollar, weighing on the pound during early European trading. Investors are also preparing for next week’s Bank of England meeting, where policymakers will likely hold the base rate at 3.75%. While a hold is anticipated, a divided vote could signal whether another cut is possible by March.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3770, with resistance around 1.3710.
| R1: 1.3770 | S1: 1.3710 |
| R2: 1.3800 | S2: 1.3680 |
| R3: 1.3850 | S3: 1.3610 |

Silver dropped about 4% toward $110 per ounce on Friday as investors secured profits following its recent historic climb. A slight recovery in the dollar added further pressure on the metal. Despite today's drop, silver remains up more than 50% for January, marking its best monthly gain ever and extending its winning streak to nine months.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $115.50, while support is located around $108.20.
| R1: 115.50 | S1: 108.20 |
| R2: 116.00 | S2: 105.30 |
| R3: 117.15 | S3: 103.40 |
Global markets remained focused on escalating Middle East tensions as rising oil prices strengthened inflation concerns and expectations for further monetary tightening.
Fed Turns Hawkish (31 August – 4 September)Global markets entered the week with renewed focus on Federal Reserve tightening after Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole address to push back against expectations that US inflation pressures were fading. The Dollar Index held near 99.6 after Friday’s sharp advance, while Treasury yields moved higher and precious metals retreated. Markets raised the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 57% from 40% a week earlier as Warsh reiterated the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.
Detail Hawkish Fed Lifts Dollar, Pressures Markets (08.31.2026)Global markets came under pressure after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks strengthened expectations for a September rate hike.
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