EUR/USD held steady near 1.1557, struggling to break past 1.1600 as skepticism lingered over the U.S.-EU trade deal’s fairness.
The Japanese yen slipped back to 148 against the dollar as Fed officials maintained a cautious tone on rate cuts, despite soft U.S. labor data. Gold advanced, supported by rising rate cut bets after a sharp downward revision in U.S. job figures. Sterling recovered from an 11-week low, though July marked its steepest monthly drop since 2022 amid economic concerns. Silver outperformed, surging past $37.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) | 55.2 | 52.9 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 50.8 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul) | - | 67.5 |
EUR/USD stabilized after last week’s rise, fueled by weaker U.S. jobs data, which strengthened expectations for a September Fed rate cut. However, gains remained capped as traders assessed the implications of the new U.S.-EU trade deal, which European leaders criticized for favoring American interests and posing long-term risks to Europe’s economic stability. With no major data releases, the pair struggled to break above the 1.1600 barrier.
EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1660, with support at 1.1500.
| R1: 1.1660 | S1: 1.1500 |
| R2: 1.1725 | S2: 1.1350 |
| R3: 1.1830 | S3: 1.1275 |
The Japanese yen retreated to around 148 per dollar, giving back prior gains as traders recalibrated Fed policy expectations. While Friday’s soft U.S. labor data fueled rate cut hopes, Federal Reserve officials struck a cautious tone, citing persistent inflation risks amplified by Trump’s new tariffs. The dollar rebounded on this sentiment shift, pressuring the yen. Markets now await the Bank of Japan’s policy minutes for clarity on a potential rate hike. The BoJ kept rates steady last week but raised its inflation outlook, while global trade uncertainty continues to weigh on policy decisions.
USD/JPY is facing resistance at 148.50, with support at 146.00.
| R1: 148.50 | S1: 146.00 |
| R2: 151.50 | S2: 143.00 |
| R3: 152.40 | S3: 140.00 |
Gold rose by 0.39% as markets priced in higher odds of a Fed rate cut following disappointing U.S. jobs data. Significant downward revisions of 258K for May and June payrolls signaled softening labor market conditions, prompting traders to assign an 87% chance of a rate cut at the September 17 Fed meeting. The prospect of easing monetary policy rekindled demand for gold, with prices testing key resistance levels.
Gold is facing resistance at $3,385, with support at $3,320.
| R1: 3385 | S1: 3320 |
| R2: 3430 | S2: 3270 |
| R3: 3500 | S3: 3250 |
The British pound rebounded to $1.328 after slipping to an 11-week low of $1.321 in the previous session. A weakening U.S. dollar, following softer labor data, provided temporary relief for sterling. However, July closed with a steep 3.8% loss for the pound, marking its worst monthly decline since September 2022. Persistent worries over the UK’s economic trajectory and fiscal health continue to drag sentiment. Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the BoE in August, with a second cut expected by year-end.
GBP/USD is seeing resistance at 1.3310, with initial support at 1.3270.
| R1: 1.3310 | S1: 1.3270 |
| R2: 1.3480 | S2: 1.3140 |
| R3: 1.3600 | S3: 1.3000 |
Silver climbed over 1%, crossing the $37 mark as markets ramped up bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The rally was fueled by disappointing U.S. jobs data, with July payrolls rising by just 73,000, far below the 100,000 forecast, and downward revisions in previous months. This soft labor print pushed rate cut expectations to 75%.
Persistent inflation worries and escalating trade tensions added to investor caution. President Trump’s latest tariff wave, which includes duties of up to 41% on select imports, has heightened market uncertainty, further strengthening demand for silver.
Silver is now testing resistance at $37.40, with support around $36.25.
| R1: 37.40 | S1: 36.25 |
| R2: 39.50 | S2: 35.50 |
| R3: 40.10 | S3: 33.90 |
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