U.S. stock futures were steady on Monday as markets awaited the Fed’s policy decision. The dollar index held near 97.6, with traders pricing a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut after weak labor and inflation data. Wall Street hit record highs last week, led by AI optimism.
Asian markets opened cautiously. The Bank of Canada and China’s central bank are expected to ease this week, while Japan and the U.K. are seen holding steady. The euro was flat despite France’s Fitch downgrade, while South Korea hit records after dropping a planned stock tax.
Gold held near $3,639, Treasuries stayed low, and the 10-year yield was at 4.06% on Friday. Markets see multiple Fed cuts by year-end, with some betting on a 50 bps move next week.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 02:00 | CNY | Chinese Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 06:30 | CHF | PPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 09:00 | EUR | Trade Balance (Jul) | 11.7B | 7.0B |
| 12:30 | USD | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) | 4.30 | 11.90 |
| 18:30 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks |
On September 15, EUR/USD edged down to 1.1732, but remains up 0.55% this month and 5.42% year-on-year. The ECB kept rates steady, with President Lagarde noting the end of disinflation and saying a stronger euro could ease price pressures.
The dollar softened after U.S. CPI stayed at 2.9% and jobless claims climbed to 263,000, lending support to the euro. ECB officials were split, some seeing inflation stable with no need for cuts, while others flagged risks from energy, euro strength, and weak growth.
Resistance is at 1.1750, with key support at 1.1680.
| R1: 1.1750 | S1: 1.1680 |
| R2: 1.1830 | S2: 1.1620 |
| R3: 1.1900 | S3: 1.1580 |
The yen strengthened to around 147.5 per dollar on Monday, rebounding from last week’s losses ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. The BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.5%, while trade data and core CPI, seen easing to 2.7%, remain in focus. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points this week after soft labor data and subdued inflation. Japanese markets saw light trading due to a national holiday.
For USD/JPY, the nearest resistance is at 148.50, while the immediate support is at 146.70.
| R1: 148.50 | S1: 146.70 |
| R2: 150.90 | S2: 145.80 |
| R3: 154.50 | S3: 144.00 |
Gold hovered near $3,640 on Monday, close to record highs, as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Traders expect a 25-basis-point cut, with easing possibly extending into next year amid labor market weakness. Attention turns to U.S. retail sales and industrial output for clues on momentum.
Political risks linger as the Trump administration renewed efforts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns over central bank independence. Investors also watched U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid for fresh signals.
Gold is currently facing resistance around $3,670, with strong support near $3,615.
| R1: 3670 | S1: 3615 |
| R2: 3700 | S2: 3560 |
| R3: 3730 | S3: 3500 |
GBP/USD held near 1.3560 on Monday as the Dollar weakened after mixed U.S. data. August CPI rose 2.9% annually and core CPI 0.3% monthly, while jobless claims climbed to 263,000, signaling labor market weakness. The pound stayed around $1.35 despite weak UK data, with GDP stagnating in July and industrial output down 0.9% amid tax hikes and tariffs. The BoE is expected to keep rates steady next week, with a focus on possible cuts in November.
The first resistance is seen at 1.3600, with nearby support beginning at 1.3480.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3480 |
| R2: 1.3680 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3770 | S3: 1.3300 |
Silver held above $42 per ounce on Monday, near 14-year highs, as investors awaited a likely Fed rate cut this week. Markets price a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut after weak U.S. labor data and subdued inflation. Easing moves are also expected in Canada and China, while Japan and the U.K. are likely to hold steady. U.S.-China talks in Madrid and strong industrial demand, supported by supply constraints, continue to back silver.
The first resistance at $42.30 and support at $40.50.
| R1: 42.30 | S1: 40.50 |
| R2: 43.20 | S2: 39.50 |
| R3: 44.15 | S3: 38.20 |
Global markets on Friday leaned cautiously constructive as traders positioned for a possible Fed rate cut next week, persistent tightness in precious metals, and rising expectations of a BOJ shift.
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