Financial markets traded cautiously ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks are expected to provide critical direction on monetary policy. The euro held steady near $1.1645, supported by mixed Eurozone inflation data and lingering geopolitical concerns.
The yen weakened toward 147.5 per dollar amid policy doubts at the Bank of Japan, while gold hovered around $3,340, with markets assigning an 82% chance of a September Fed rate cut. Sterling slipped toward $1.3450 ahead of PMI releases, and silver climbed to $37.85 on renewed easing expectations.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 08:00 | EUR | Euro Area Services PMI | 50.8 | 51 |
| 08:00 | EUR | Euro Area Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 49.8 |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claimless | 226K | 224K |
| 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) | 6.8 | 15.9 |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 49.7 | 49.8 |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) | 54.2 | 55.7 |
| 14:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales (Jul) | 3.92M | 3.93M |
| 23:30 | JPY | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 23.30 | JPY | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1% | 3.3% |
The euro held steady at $1.1645 as markets awaited U.S. PMI data later today, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech on Friday is expected to guide sentiment following renewed questions over central bank independence.
In Europe, July inflation in the Eurozone remained unchanged as ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of persistent uncertainty and weaker Q4 growth. Meanwhile, optimism over U.S.–Ukraine talks faded after Kremlin remarks, weighing slightly on the euro.
Resistance is at 1.1770, with key support at 1.1600.
| R1: 1.1770 | S1: 1.1600 |
| R2: 1.1830 | S2: 1.1520 |
| R3: 1.1900 | S3: 1.1350 |
The yen weakened to around 147.5 per dollar on Thursday as uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook persisted. While inflation forecasts have been revised higher and some officials signaled the possibility of a rate hike by year-end, Governor Ueda reiterated that core inflation has yet to be firmly anchored at 2%. Data pointed to manufacturing nearing stabilization and a slowdown in services, while markets looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for global rate signals.
For USD/JPY, the nearest resistance is at 148.00, while the immediate support is at 145.00.
| R1: 148.00 | S1: 145.00 |
| R2: 151.50 | S2: 143.00 |
| R3: 152.40 | S3: 140.00 |
Gold steadied near $3,340 per ounce on Thursday as investors awaited Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium for policy guidance. Markets currently assign an 82% probability to a September rate cut, though Fed minutes signaled caution, with officials highlighting inflation and labor market risks. On the geopolitical front, Russia warned that security discussions on Ukraine excluding Moscow represent a “road to nowhere.”
Gold is currently facing resistance around $3,385, with strong support near $3,300.
| R1: 3385 | S1: 3300 |
| R2: 3420 | S2: 3275 |
| R3: 3500 | S3: 3230 |
GBP/USD slipped toward 1.3450 in Asian trade on Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened following firmer wholesale inflation and reduced expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Traders now await PMI figures from both the UK and U.S., while attention is also on Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, where remarks from Fed Chair Powell could shape the dollar’s near-term direction.
The first resistance is seen at 1.3620, with nearby support beginning at 1.3340.
| R1: 1.3620 | S1: 1.3340 |
| R2: 1.3750 | S2: 1.3260 |
| R3: 1.3850 | S3: 1.3000 |
Silver (XAG/USD) climbed to about $37.85 in Asian trading on Thursday, supported by expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Stronger U.S. wholesale prices and retail sales reduced the likelihood of a larger 50 bps move, but markets still assign an 83% probability to easing. Lower rates are seen as supportive for the non-yielding metal, with investors awaiting Powell’s remarks at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium for further policy signals.
The first resistance at $38.70 and support at $36.75.
| R1: 38.70 | S1: 36.75 |
| R2: 40.50 | S2: 35.50 |
| R3: 41.20 | S3: 33.90 |
Global markets remained cautious as investors weighed the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices.
Currency markets remained volatile as ongoing Middle East tensions continued to shape global sentiment.
Hormuz Blockade Rattles Markets (09 - 13 March)Global sentiment was dominated this week by the second week of the war with Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent crude prices above $100/barrel. Despite a catastrophic US labor report showing a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, safe-haven demand pushed the US Dollar Index to 99.1. The energy shock has ignited fears of "stagflation," particularly in Europe and Japan, as soaring fuel costs threaten to reverse recent disinflationary trends.
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