Markets Eye Tariff Deadline as Dollar Firms (07.21.2025)

EUR/USD Pulls Back Amid Trade Deal Uncertainty

EUR/USD edged down to 1.1620 during Monday’s Asian session, after gains in the previous session, as the US Dollar stayed firm and traders remained cautious ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the Trump administration expects to finalize trade deals with major partners in the coming weeks, calling the next two weeks “historic.” He expressed optimism about reaching an agreement with the EU but confirmed that August 1 remains a firm deadline for new tariffs.

Resistance levels for EUR/USD are set at 1.1670, followed by 1.1700, and extend up to 1.1750. On the downside, support is found at 1.1580, with additional levels at 1.1540 and 1.1500.

Yen Recovers After Japan’s Upper House Election

The Japanese yen rose to around 148.5 per dollar on Monday, recovering some of last week’s losses after the ruling coalition lost its upper house majority. Markets had mostly priced in the result, limiting the reaction. Prime Minister Ishiba is expected to remain in office, which could ease concerns over political instability.

The opposition is likely to push for more spending and tax cuts, which could pressure the yen and lift bond yields. The election outcome comes as Tokyo continues trade talks with Washington. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed the August 1 tariff deadline but said negotiations will continue.

For the yen, resistance stands at 149.30, followed by 151.50, with the next key level at 155.00. Support is located at 147.50, with further levels at 146.15 and 145.30.

Gold Nears $3,350 as Tariff Risks Persist

Gold rose to around $3,350 per ounce on Monday, extending its gains for a second session amid concerns over Trump’s tariff strategy. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a deal with the EU is likely but confirmed the August 1 tariff deadline. He also suggested smaller countries could face at least a 10% tariff, with some rates reaching 40%. Strong US data last week reduced expectations for an immediate Fed rate cut, capping gold’s gains. Markets now await comments from Fed Chair Powell and Governor Bowman for policy signals.

Gold faces resistance at 3380, with additional barriers at 3400 and 3430. Support levels are positioned at 3330, followed by 3295 and extending down to 3250.

Pound Pressured by Rising UK Jobless Rate

GBP/USD started the week steady, trading just above 1.3400 during the Asian session and holding near last week’s two-month low. The US Dollar remains soft below Thursday’s monthly peak, as markets weigh the prospects of a Fed rate cut. Although Fed Governor Waller backed a July cut, most investors expect the Fed to keep rates higher for longer due to Trump’s tariffs impacting consumer prices.

The British Pound is under pressure as markets price in a potential Bank of England rate cut in August. UK labor data showed unemployment rising to 4.7%, a four-year high, and annual pay growth slowing to 5%, the weakest since Q2 2022. This limits GBP/USD upside despite persistent inflation.

For GBP/USD, resistance is seen at 1.3535, with the next levels at 1.3580 and 1.3630. Support stands at 1.3380, followed by 1.3270 and 1.3140.

Silver Holds Near $38.40 with Bullish Momentum

As of July 21, 2025, silver (XAG/USD) trades between $38.20 and $38.40, maintaining its upward trend. Key resistance is at $38.50; a break above could lead to $39.10–$40.00. Strong support is at $37.00 and $36.80. The RSI is nearing overbought, suggesting a possible short-term correction.

Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data may raise Fed rate cut expectations, supporting silver. Geopolitical risks and U.S. trade policies are supporting safe-haven demand, while strong industrial use in renewable energy and electronics also supports prices. The medium-term outlook remains positive.

Silver faces resistance at 38.50, with higher levels at 39.50 and 40.10. Support is found at 37.20, followed by 36.85 and 35.50.