Markets Focus on CPI and NFP as Dollar Weakens (12.15.2025)

Global markets were mixed after the Fed’s 25 bp cut, with attention shifting to upcoming ECB, BoE, and BoJ decisions and key US inflation and jobs data. 

Risk appetite was dented by a selloff in semiconductor stocks, while US 10-year yields climbed toward 4.2% as Fed officials sent mixed signals on further easing. Gold and silver edged higher, and US equities stabilized after a volatile week, with the Dow at record highs but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pressured by a rotation out of expensive tech, led by sharp declines in Oracle and Broadcom.

EUR/USD opens the week cautiously as markets await key U.S. CPI and NFP data alongside the ECB policy decision. The Yen firmed on rising BoJ hike expectations and a softer risk tone, while gold and silver hovered near record levels amid strong demand and easing prospects. Sterling extended gains above 1.3400 as attention shifted to the upcoming BoE meeting and UK data.

EUR/USD Braces for CPI and NFP

EUR/USD starts the week with focus on heavy U.S. data and the ECB policy decision. The Fed has already cut rates and signaled only one more possible cut in 2026, keeping policy supportive. Markets now await delayed U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI data for clues on the Fed’s next move. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting.

Technically, 1.1680 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1770.

Yen Firms on BOJ Hike Expectations

The Japanese yen opened the week firmer as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike strengthened. A softer global risk environment strengthened its safe-haven demand, while a dovish Federal Reserve outlook pressured the U.S. dollar. This combination pushed USD/JPY below the mid-155.00 area. Attention now turns to key U.S. economic data due this week and the upcoming BoJ policy meeting for clearer signals on future monetary policy direction.

Technically, resistance stands near 156.00, while support is firm at 154.50.

Gold Near Records Ahead of U.S. Data

Gold rose to around $4,320 per ounce on Monday, nearing record highs as investors positioned ahead of a heavy U.S. data week, with the jobs report on Tuesday and inflation figures on Thursday set to shape Fed expectations. The move follows the Fed’s third 25bp cut this year, though the decision was split, with dissenting officials arguing inflation remains elevated and signaling caution over how far rate cuts may extend into 2026.

Gold sees support near $4275, while resistance is around $4380.

GBP/USD Breaks Above 1.3400

GBP/USD extended its gains for a third consecutive week, breaking above the 1.3400 level as the US dollar stayed under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. The softer dollar backdrop has allowed sterling to outperform, supported by shifting expectations around global monetary easing. Looking ahead, market focus is turning to the Bank of England, which is widely expected to cut rates on December 18. Incoming UK data will be closely watched to assess economic momentum and determine how much room the BoE has for further easing, shaping the pound’s near-term outlook.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3320, with resistance around 1.3450.

Silver Near Records Above $62

Silver traded around $62.5 per ounce on Monday, remaining close to record highs and extending its year-to-date gains beyond 100%. The ongoing rally has been supported by tightening inventories, resilient industrial demand, and silver’s designation as a critical mineral in the United States. Demand has been particularly strong from solar energy, electric vehicles, and data center infrastructure.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.50, while support is located around $62.30.