Markets Keep Steady Ahead of NFP (04.03.2026)

Markets remained cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, with EUR/USD edging higher on hawkish ECB signals while safe-haven demand continued to support the dollar. 

Gold and silver attempted to stabilize after recent declines, though upside remains limited under current conditions. Meanwhile, USD/JPY hovered near intervention levels as rising oil prices and shifting rate expectations strengthened the dollar, while GBP/USD stayed under pressure amid mixed BoE signals. Thin liquidity due to the Good Friday holiday may amplify volatility across assets.

EUR/USD Edges Higher

The EUR/USD pair rose slightly to the 1.1540–1.1550 range on Friday as investors awaited the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The euro gained traction following hawkish remarks from ECB official François Villeroy de Galhau, who signaled that a rate hike is probable despite an uncertain timeline. However, persistent Middle East tensions continue to support the dollar's safe-haven appeal, potentially capping further gains for the pair.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1590, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1500.

Gold Stabilizes Near $4,700

Gold is attempting to stabilize around $4,700 following its recent retreat, aided by modest buying interest. Technically, the metal remains below its primary trendline, which may cap near term gains. Resistance is firmly set at $4,850. With markets closed for Good Friday, investors should expect potential volatility at Monday’s opening as the metal reacts to weekend geopolitical developments.

First resistance is seen at $4720, with initial support near $4580.

Intervention Risks Rise for Yen

USD/JPY is trading near 159.60 as rising oil prices and fading Fed rate cut expectations support the dollar. The pair is approaching a threshold that previously sparked $62 billion in Japanese interventions. Tokyo’s Ministry of Finance has renewed warnings of "decisive action" against yen weakness. With US equity markets closed for holiday, the 12:30 GMT Nonfarm Payrolls report could trigger sharp volatility due to thin liquidity. Meanwhile, markets now price a 71% chance of a rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s late April meeting.

Technically, resistance stands near 159.80, while support is firm at 158.50.

GBP/USD Pressured Below 1.33

GBP/USD remains under significant pressure, dropping 0.65% on Thursday to settle near 1.3220. The pair has now retreated more than 650 pips from its January peak, with the 2026 low of 1.3080 serving as the next major support level. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has actively countered market rate hike expectations, though traders still price in two increases this year. With US equity markets closed for Good Friday, the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report could trigger sharp price swings due to thin liquidity.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3320, with resistance around 1.3170.

Silver Attempts Recovery

Silver is stabilizing between $70 and $75 following its recent sharp sell-off. While short-term buying interest is growing, a sustained break above $75 is likely necessary for a more meaningful rally. With markets closed for holiday, investors should prepare for potentially sharp price swings when full trading activity resumes on Monday.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $75.20 while support is located around $71.50.