Markets remained steady on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. While EUR/USD hovered near multi-year highs on easing Israel-Iran tensions, safe-haven demand lifted gold and silver. The yen weakened after the BoJ maintained its stance, and GBP/USD traded flat ahead of key UK inflation data.
Geopolitical concerns, trade uncertainties, and central bank forecasts continue to shape sentiment across assets.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales(May) | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales(May) | -0.5% | 0.1% |
EUR/USD trades around 1.1560 for a second day, staying near the June 12 peak of 1.1631, its highest since October 2021, as easing Israel-Iran tensions support risk sentiment.
Iran reportedly urged Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to press Trump for a ceasefire, while G7 leaders reaffirmed opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapon and called for de-escalation.
The Euro gains from diverging policy views. ECB rate cut odds for September dropped to 50%, with the end-2025 deposit rate seen at 1.79%. ECB’s Nagel stressed policy flexibility.
The Fed is expected to hold rates Wednesday, with attention on new forecasts and the dot plot as markets weigh a possible September cut.
Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.
| R1: 1.1580 | S1: 1.1460 |
| R2: 1.1660 | S2: 1.1390 |
| R3: 1.1700 | S3: 1.1350 |
The Japanese yen weakened toward 145 per dollar on Tuesday, its third straight loss, after the BOJ held rates at 0.5% and reaffirmed its bond tapering plan through March 2026, while leaving room for adjustments.
Policymakers remain cautious amid rising oil-driven inflation and unclear U.S. trade policy. The yen also slipped after reports that Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump failed to reach a tariff deal at the G7 summit.
Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand and inflation concerns, as Trump called for a full evacuation of Tehran and criticized Iran’s rejection of his nuclear deal.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
| R1: 145.30 | S1: 142.50 |
| R2: 146.10 | S2: 142.10 |
| R3: 148.15 | S3: 141.50 |
Gold rose to around $3,390 per ounce on Tuesday as the ongoing Middle East conflict increased safe-haven demand. The rally followed Trump’s call for a swift evacuation of Tehran after intensified Israeli strikes on Iranian military and media targets.
This rebound came after a 1.4% drop on Monday, the sharpest in a month, as hopes for de-escalation grew with Iran signaling openness to nuclear talks if the US halts support for Israeli actions.
Investors now await US retail sales and industrial production data for May, along with the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, where rates are expected to remain steady and forward guidance will be key.
Resistance is seen at $3,430, while support holds at $3,350.
| R1: 3430 | S1: 3350 |
| R2: 3500 | S2: 3310 |
| R3: 3600 | S3: 3290 |
GBP/USD trades in a tight range above the mid-1.3500s during Tuesday’s Asian session, staying near Friday’s three-year high as markets await key data and central bank decisions.
Focus is on the UK inflation report on Wednesday and the BoE meeting on Thursday, both expected to impact the pound. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday will also guide the US dollar and GBP/USD direction.
Weaker UK GDP has raised expectations of more aggressive BoE cuts, pressuring the pound. At the same time, Middle East tensions support the safe-haven US dollar, capping GBP/USD gains.
However, rising Fed rate cut bets for September and US trade and fiscal uncertainties limit dollar strength, offering some support to the pair.
Resistance is at 1.3600, with support around 1.3425.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3425 |
| R2: 1.3750 | S2: 1.3165 |
| R3: 1.3850 | S3: 1.2890 |
Silver held above $36.40 per ounce on Tuesday, near its highest since 2012, supported by strong industrial demand, supply shortages, and safe-haven interest amid geopolitical tensions.
Demand for silver in solar, electronics, and electrification now makes up over half of global use, underscoring its long-term importance. The market faces a fifth straight annual deficit, though the Silver Institute expects a 21% narrowing in 2025.
Supply concerns and investor caution ahead of the Fed’s rate decision this week continue to support prices. Geopolitical risks also remain elevated after President Trump called for a full evacuation of Tehran and left the G7 summit early to monitor the Israel-Iran situation.
Resistance is set at 36.90, while support stands at 35.40.
| R1: 36.90 | S1: 35.40 |
| R2: 37.20 | S2: 34.85 |
| R3: 37.50 | S3: 33.80 |
Markets remained cautiously optimistic on Wednesday as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran lifted risk sentiment, improving the euro, pound, and silver while weighing on the US dollar. EUR/USD edged up toward 1.1620, supported by hopes of a de-escalation in the conflict and slightly rising July rate cut odds.
Detail Ceasefire and Fed Dovishness Pressure US Dollar (06.24.2025)The euro climbed to a fresh weekly high near 1.1610 on Tuesday as the US dollar weakened sharply after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Detail
UK Economy Picks Up Pace in June as Manufacturing ReboundsThe UK private sector returned to modest growth in June, rounding off the second quarter on a more positive note.
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