The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% in September, its first move since December. Governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50 bps cut. The Fed signaled another 50 bps of easing by year-end and one cut in 2026, with GDP growth upgraded and 2026 inflation forecasts higher.
The dollar index held above 97, while Powell called the move “risk management” amid labor softness. The Bank of Canada also cut rates, while the BoE and BoJ are expected to stay on hold.
US 10-year yields hovered near 4.07% as stocks reacted to the Fed’s guidance. Futures rose, but Cracker Barrel shares fell over 9% on weak earnings. The Dow gained 0.57% Wednesday, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq lost 0.33%.
Asian markets advanced, led by Japan’s Nikkei, hitting a record 45,296.21, and gains in South Korea’s KOSPI. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks were mixed, though Shanghai indexes touched decade highs.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 07:10 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ||
| 11:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 241K | 263K |
| 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) | 1.7 | -0.3 |
| 16:00 | USD | 10-Year TIPS Auction | 1.985% | |
| 20:30 | USD | Fed’s Balance Sheet | 6.606B |
The euro hovered near $1.18, just below four-year highs, as the dollar firmed after the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut. Chair Powell called it “risk management” and hinted at another 50 bps of easing this year. The ECB left rates unchanged, with officials warning of risks from tariffs, inflation, and fiscal policies. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.0% in August, slightly under forecasts.
Resistance is at 1.1880, with key support at 1.1725.
| R1: 1.1880 | S1: 1.1725 |
| R2: 1.1930 | S2: 1.1610 |
| R3: 1.2000 | S3: 1.1545 |
The yen slipped past 147 per dollar on Thursday as the dollar strengthened after the Fed’s 25 bps cut. The Fed signaled two more cuts this year but only one in 2026, tempering easing expectations. The BoJ began its policy meeting, expected to keep rates steady, while analysts see a possible hike in October.
Resistance is at 147.50, while support holds at 146.00.
| R1: 147.50 | S1: 146.00 |
| R2: 148.25 | S2: 145.50 |
| R3: 150.90 | S3: 144.00 |
Gold hovered near $3,650 on Thursday, extending losses as the dollar strengthened after the Fed’s 25 bps cut. Chair Powell called the move risk management amid labor weakness, stressing a cautious approach. Gold is still up 39% this year, supported by easing bets, geopolitical tensions, and central bank demand, while Indian supplies stay tight.
Gold is currently facing resistance around $3,700, with strong support near $3,634.
| R1: 3700 | S1: 3634 |
| R2: 3730 | S2: 3600 |
| R3: 3760 | S3: 3550 |
The pound held above $1.363, near a ten-week high, as traders awaited central bank decisions. The BoE is expected to keep rates at 4% while slowing its bond unwind, with inflation at 3.8% and unemployment steady at 4.7%. Rate-cut bets remain low. Meanwhile, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps and signaled up to 50 bps more this year, with Powell framing the move as risk management.
The first resistance is seen at 1.3680, with nearby support beginning at 1.3570.
| R1: 1.3680 | S1: 1.3570 |
| R2: 1.3730 | S2: 1.3500 |
| R3: 1.3780 | S3: 1.3450 |
Silver slipped below $41.5 on Thursday, extending a three-day decline after the Fed’s 25 bps cut. The central bank signaled two more cuts this year but only one in 2026, tempering easing expectations. Powell called the move “risk management” amid labor weakness. The BoC also cut rates, while the BoE and BoJ are set to hold. Industrial demand from solar, EVs, and electronics, plus supply constraints, continues to support silver.
The first resistance is at $42.30 and support is at $40.80.
| R1: 42.30 | S1: 40.80 |
| R2: 43.00 | S2: 39.40 |
| R3: 44.10 | S3: 37.50 |
Global markets on Friday leaned cautiously constructive as traders positioned for a possible Fed rate cut next week, persistent tightness in precious metals, and rising expectations of a BOJ shift.
Detail Dovish Wave Lifts Metals as Yen Tightens (12.04.2025)Markets on Thursday leaned toward a dovish global outlook, lifting precious metals and reshaping major currency moves.
Detail Gold Climbs, Yen Recovers on Soft US Signals (12.03.2025)Rate-cut expectations overtook Wednesday trading.
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