Markets Wait for Geopolitics and NFP (04.02.2026)

Markets remained cautious as investors awaited key geopolitical updates and U.S. labor data. 

EUR/USD held near 1.1600, supported by expectations of future ECB tightening, while USD/JPY hovered around 159 as intervention signals and mixed macro data balanced the pair. The U.S. dollar regained strength following renewed Middle East uncertainty, pressuring gold and silver, with gold pulling back from recent highs and silver dropping sharply. Meanwhile, sterling rebounded above 1.3300 but faced headwinds from cautious BoE guidance and rising inflation concerns. Overall, sentiment stayed fragile as traders positioned ahead of major events.

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1600

EUR/USD stabilized around 1.1590 early Thursday as traders turned cautious before Donald Trump’s address on the Iran conflict. Despite this uncertainty, the euro found firm support as markets increasingly price in potential ECB rate hikes for 2026. This shifting monetary outlook is helping the currency maintain its footing against the dollar ahead of key geopolitical updates.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1630, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1530.

USD/JPY Volatility Near 159.00

USD/JPY stabilized around 159.00 as conflicting market forces balanced the pair. While ceasefire optimism in the Middle East dampened dollar demand, persistent intervention warnings from Tokyo provided a floor for the yen. Domestically, Japan’s Tankan survey hit a four year high of 17, showing manufacturer resilience despite high energy costs. The US ISM Prices Paid index surged to 78.3, signaling intense inflationary pressure while the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors now await Donald Trump’s address on the Iran conflict and US jobless claims for further direction.

Technically, resistance stands near 159.30, while support is firm at 158.00.

Gold Retreats Near $4,690

Gold slipped toward $4,690 per ounce on Thursday, ending a four day rally as the US dollar regained momentum. While Donald Trump suggested that primary objectives in Iran are nearly met, his warning of potentially intensified military operations over the next three weeks reignited safe-haven demand for the dollar. This dollar strength, coupled with rising oil prices and heightened inflation concerns, has pressured the non-yielding metal as markets anticipate a more restrictive monetary policy environment.

First resistance is seen at $4900, with initial support near $4640.

GBP/USD Reclaims 1.3300 Level

GBP/USD staged a recovery from its March lows, rebounding past 1.3300 on Wednesday to snap a nearly two week losing streak. Despite this bounce, traders remain cautious ahead of Donald Trump’s address and the Good Friday Nonfarm Payrolls report. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has tempered market optimism, warning that expectations for near term rate hikes may be premature. Meanwhile, the US ISM Prices Paid index hit a four year high of 78.3, fueling fears of a stagflationary environment. Since major markets are closed Friday, the employment data will likely trigger a volatile opening on Monday.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3230, with resistance around 1.3380.

Silver Falls on Dollar Strength

Silver fell over 3% to approximately $72 per ounce on Thursday as the US dollar surged following Donald Trump’s primetime address. The President avoided a definitive timeline for ending the Middle East conflict, noting that while strategic goals in Iran are nearly met, military operations might intensify over the next three weeks. This rhetoric supported the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, putting significant downward pressure on precious metals as investors pivoted back toward the dollar.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $78.2 while support is located around $71.10.