The dollar index slipped below 97 as markets awaited delayed January jobs data, with weak retail sales and reports of China urging banks to cut US Treasury exposure adding pressure on the currency.
The euro remained firm above $1.19 as investors digested a steady ECB stance and a softer US dollar, with policymakers showing little concern over recent currency strength. The yen extended gains on election-driven optimism and intervention expectations, adding pressure to the greenback. Precious metals stayed supported, with gold holding near a two-week high on rising rate-cut bets and ongoing central bank demand, while silver rebounded as weak US data reinforced expectations for looser monetary policy. Sterling lagged peers amid UK political uncertainty and growing expectations of further Bank of England easing.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| Japan – National Founding Day | ||||
| Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||
| Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | 66K | 50K | ||
| Unemployment (Jan) | 4.4% | 4.4% | ||
| Crude Oil Inventories | -3.455M | |||
| 10-Year Note Auction | 4.173% |
The euro traded above $1.19 on Wednesday, staying near multi-week highs as the ECB appeared unconcerned by the currency's recent strength. Interest rates remained steady, and the bank maintained its 2% inflation target, despite President Lagarde’s warning of potential data volatility. Sentiment shifted on news that dovish Bank of France Governor François Villeroy will step down in June. The euro also found strength from a softer US dollar and a rising Japanese yen, which provided further upward momentum.
EUR/USD, the first resistance level is at 1.1930, while the initial support is located at 1.1880.
| R1: 1.1930 | S1: 1.1880 |
| R2: 1.1970 | S2: 1.1840 |
| R3: 1.2000 | S3: 1.1780 |
The Japanese yen climbed beyond 154 per dollar on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive day of gains. Markets reacted favorably to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory. Investors hope her plans for fiscal support and short-term tax cuts will stimulate the economy without damaging national finances. Expectations of government intervention to stop currency speculation also supported the yen. Furthermore, a weakening US dollar, hit by soft economic data and rising hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, added significant momentum to the yen’s rally.
Technically, resistance stands near 154.50, while support is firm at 153.00.
| R1: 154.50 | S1: 153.00 |
| R2: 155.30 | S2: 152.30 |
| R3: 156.00 | S3: 151.40 |
Gold prices remained above $5,040 per ounce on Wednesday, holding near a two-week peak as investors anticipate a more supportive Federal Reserve. Stagnant U.S. retail sales figures suggest a cooling economy, prompting markets to price in three potential interest rate cuts this year. Traders are now awaiting upcoming employment and inflation reports for further clarity. Additionally, bullion continues to find support from steady central bank accumulation, particularly by China, and persistent geopolitical friction in the Middle East.
Gold sees support near $5000, while resistance is around $5095.
| R1: 5095 | S1: 5000 |
| R2: 5150 | S2: 4925 |
| R3: 5240 | S3: 4850 |
The British pound traded around $1.365 on Wednesday, remaining under its recent multi-year peaks due to UK political friction. Uncertainty grew following the exit of Prime Minister Starmer’s chief of staff and leadership challenges from Scottish Labour, though support from senior officials provided some stability. Additionally, sterling faced pressure from expectations of further Bank of England rate cuts. Policymakers suggested inflation is on track to hit targets, leading to a more cautious market outlook for the currency.
From a technical view, support stands near 1.3620, with resistance around 1.3720.
| R1: 1.3720 | S1: 1.3620 |
| R2: 1.3780 | S2: 1.3560 |
| R3: 1.3820 | S3: 1.3500 |
Silver climbed above $82 per ounce on Wednesday, rising more than 1% as disappointing U.S. economic data sparked a move into defensive assets. Stagnant retail sales pointed to a slowdown in consumer spending, shifting investor focus toward the delayed January employment report for fresh growth signals. Markets are now pricing in approximately 60 basis points of Federal Reserve easing this year, which has supported precious metals. This shift away from dollar-based assets provided extra support, though buyers remain cautious following recent market turbulence.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $84.10 while support is located around $80.00.
| R1: 84.10 | S1: 80.00 |
| R2: 87.50 | S2: 78.10 |
| R3: 90.00 | S3: 75.80 |
The dollar index stayed under pressure on Tuesday as fears of softer foreign demand for US assets, reports of Chinese banks cutting Treasury holdings, expectations of delayed US jobs and inflation data, and a firmer yen on intervention talk weighed on the greenback.
Precious Metals Rebound (09-13 February)Global markets began the week with the US dollar under pressure, falling under 97.5 for a second consecutive session. The greenback’s decline was fueled by a combination of improved risk sentiment and expectations of stable Federal Reserve policy with potential rate cuts on the horizon. Investors remained cautious as they awaited a backlog of delayed US economic data, including employment and inflation figures.
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