Sentiment improved at the start of the week as hopes for a potential US-Iran agreement reduced demand for the US dollar and eased concerns over energy supply disruptions.
The euro, yen, gold, and silver all moved higher, supported by expectations that the proposed deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower regional tensions.
The British pound remained resilient despite disappointing UK retail sales and a widening budget deficit, highlighting a mixed picture across major currencies and precious metals.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| - | GBP | United Kingdom - Spring Bank Holiday | - | - |
| - | USD | United States - Memorial Day | - | - |

EUR/USD began the week on a firmer note as renewed confidence in a possible US-Iran agreement reduced demand for the US dollar. The pair climbed back into the middle of the 1.1600 range during Asian trading, recovering ground lost late last week.
Even so, the rebound remains in its early stages. Last Thursday’s slide to 1.1575 marked the lowest level since early April, leaving traders cautious about whether the latest advance can develop into a broader move higher.
For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1660, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1580.
| R1: 1.1660 | S1: 1.1580 |
| R2: 1.1700 | S2: 1.1520 |
| R3: 1.1750 | S3: 1.1440 |

Gold moved back toward the $4,600 mark, recovering after last week’s pullback as expectations for a potential US-Iran agreement improved market sentiment. Reports indicated the proposal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, facilitate the release of frozen Iranian assets, reduce regional conflict, and establish a framework for future discussions on Iran’s nuclear activities.
With concerns surrounding energy disruptions easing, the metal regained traction after several sessions of weakness.
First resistance is seen at $4590, with initial support near $4500.
| R1: 4590 | S1: 4500 |
| R2: 4650 | S2: 4450 |
| R3: 4740 | S3: 4310 |

The Japanese yen strengthened beyond 159 per dollar at the start of the week, recovering from its weakest level in three weeks. A decline in oil prices and broad-based dollar weakness improved sentiment toward the Japanese currency.
The prospect of smoother crude flows helped ease pressure on economies heavily reliant on imported oil.
Initial resistance stands at 159.50, while the first support is located at 158.20.
| R1: 159.50 | S1: 158.20 |
| R2: 161.50 | S2: 157.20 |
| R3: 163.20 | S3: 156.00 |

The British pound remained comfortably above $1.34 despite a series of weaker-than-expected economic releases. Retail sales fell 1.3% in April, more than double the forecast decline of 0.6%, largely driven by reduced fuel purchases as higher prices weighed on demand.
Public finances also deteriorated, with the budget deficit widening to £24.3 billion. The figure exceeded forecasts and represented the largest April shortfall since 2020, highlighting ongoing pressure on government finances.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3520, with support around 1.3440.
| R1: 1.3250 | S1: 1.3440 |
| R2: 1.3580 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3630 | S3: 1.3200 |

Silver advanced toward $78 per ounce, reversing part of last week’s decline as confidence improved around a potential US-Iran agreement.
The improvement in geopolitical dialogue supported demand for precious metals and helped silver regain momentum after a softer finish to the previous week.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $78.70 while support is located around $75.
| R1: 78.70 | S1: 75.00 |
| R2: 80.50 | S2: 72.80 |
| R3: 82.50 | S3: 69.00 |
Markets turned their attention to the European Central Bank on Wednesday as the euro recovered modestly from recent lows.
Markets remained cautious on Tuesday as investors balanced easing tensions between Iran and Israel against persistent inflation concerns.
Strong US Data Backs Rate Hike Bets (08-12 June)Global markets started the week as investors reassessed interest rate expectations following a series of stronger US economic releases. Solid labor market data, rising job openings, and resilient employment figures strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy, lifting the US dollar and bond yields. At the same time, renewed tensions in the Middle East, including missile exchanges between Iran and Israel and ongoing disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, kept energy markets on edge and maintained concerns about inflationary pressures.
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