Policy Divergence Shapes Market Moves (01.07.2025)

The dollar index held near 98.5 as markets awaited key US labor and services data, with Fed policy expected to stay unchanged despite dovish signals from some officials.

The euro eased near 1.17 after softer inflation readings across the Eurozone reduced expectations for further ECB tightening. The yen weakened past 156.5 amid rising tensions with China, while gold paused its rally as markets awaited key US data despite ongoing geopolitical risks. Sterling held near recent highs on policy divergence with the Fed, and silver pulled back from record levels as traders took profits ahead of major US releases.

Euro Weakens as Inflation Eases

The Euro hovered near $1.17 on Wednesday following weaker inflation data across the bloc. German inflation fell below the 2% target, while French and broader Eurozone figures also pointed to cooling price pressures. These reports have significantly reduced expectations for ECB rate increases through 2026. Investors are now awaiting final Eurozone inflation releases to confirm the central bank’s likely shift toward a more neutral stance.

Technically, 1.1670 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1740.

Yen Slides Past 156.5 Amid China Tensions

The Japanese Yen weakened beyond 156.5 per dollar on Wednesday, pressured by escalating diplomatic friction as Beijing restricted military exports to Japan. This move followed Prime Minister Takaichi’s recent comments regarding Taiwan. While U.S. intervention in Venezuela had a negligible market impact, the Yen's decline was cushioned by Governor Ueda’s resilient economic outlook. Markets continue to expect steady Bank of Japan rate hikes throughout 2026 despite the current geopolitical volatility.

Technically, resistance stands near 157.20, while support is firm at 156.10.

Gold Eases Toward $4,480

Gold prices softened to $4,480 per ounce on Wednesday, pausing a two day rally as focus shifted to upcoming U.S. economic data. While Fed officials have recently signaled support for 2026 rate cuts, traders are awaiting Friday’s December jobs report for definitive policy direction. Despite the pullback, bullion remains supported by safe haven demand following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and ongoing geopolitical instability.

Gold sees support near $4425, while resistance is around $4520.

Sterling Nears Peak on Policy Divergence

The British Pound held firm near $1.350 on Wednesday, supported by a widening gap between UK and US interest rate expectations. While markets anticipate multiple Federal Reserve cuts in 2026, the Bank of England is expected to move more slowly, providing Sterling a yield advantage. Recent data revealed that UK consumer borrowing surged to a two year high in November, even as mortgage approvals dipped slightly ahead of the government's autumn budget.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3450, with resistance around 1.3565.

Silver Retreats to $80.35 Amid Profit Taking

Silver prices edged lower to $80.35 on Wednesday as traders locked in profits following a surge to record highs. The pullback comes ahead of high impact US data, including the ISM Services PMI and Friday’s employment report. However, losses remain cushioned by expectations of 2026 Fed rate cuts and safe haven demand. Tensions persist following the US operation in Venezuela, keeping investors cautious as they weigh geopolitical risks against potential shifts in US monetary policy.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.70 while support is located around $78.70.