S&P 500 Hits Record on Strong Earnings (08.29.2025)

The 10-year US Treasury yield held around 4.21%, close to a four-month low and down 20 basis points in August, as traders positioned for policy easing.

In commodities, WTI crude climbed 0.7% to $64.6 per barrel, rebounding on fading hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities, and speculation over tighter US sanctions. Washington’s pressure on India to curb Russian imports, coupled with tariffs raised to 50%, added to supply risks, though analysts cautioned that rising OPEC+ output and thin holiday trading could temper gains.

The dollar index held near 97.9 on Friday after its sharp monthly drop, with markets focused on July’s PCE inflation report. Core PCE is expected to rise 2.9% year-on-year, the fastest in five months, while revised Q2 GDP came in at 3.3%, supported by stronger trade and business investment. 

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed at a record high, driven by solid economic data, upbeat earnings from Autodesk and Ulta, and ongoing AI optimism despite mixed results from Nvidia. The yen hovered near 147, balancing soft domestic data with BOJ Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments on wage growth and inflation, keeping rate hike expectations alive.

Euro Slips Ahead of German and U.S. Data

EUR/USD eased to around 1.1660 in Friday’s Asian session, marking a fourth day of declines as the dollar regained strength. Focus turns to Germany’s July Retail Sales and preliminary August CPI, followed by U.S. PCE inflation data later today. The greenback found support after Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% from 3.1%, though dovish signals capped gains as Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a September cut and further easing within six months to protect jobs.

Resistance sits at 1.1700, with support at 1.1630.

Yen Firms as Tokyo CPI Slows

USD/JPY slipped toward 146.85 in early Asian trade after Tokyo CPI eased in August. Headline inflation cooled to 2.6% YoY from 2.9%, core CPI slowed to 2.5%, and the BOJ’s key measure excluding food and energy edged down to 3.0% from 3.1%. Traders now look to the U.S. July PCE inflation later today for direction on Fed policy.

Resistance stands at 148.80, with support at 146.50.

Gold Pulls Back From Five-Week Peak

Gold eased to $3,410 in early European trade Friday after reaching a five-week high of $3,425 the day before. The dollar firmed on stronger U.S. GDP and jobless claims, though expectations of a September Fed cut and dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams kept underlying support for bullion intact. Traders now await July’s PCE inflation, forecast at 2.6% YoY headline and 2.9% core, which could guide near-term price action.

Gold resistance stands at $3,423, with support at $3,374.

Pound Gains on Stronger Business Activity

GBP/USD edged higher to $1.347 on Friday after a survey showed UK businesses posted their strongest month in a year, led by services. While inflation has run hotter, analysts stressed much of the rise came from airfare costs rather than broad pressures, leaving BoE’s outlook steady. Markets price less than a 50% chance of a 2025 cut, with only a 36% probability of a move this year and expectations pushed into spring 2026. Sterling is up nearly 8% against the dollar in 2025.

Resistance is at 1.3588, with support at 1.3390.

Silver Softens Ahead of U.S. PCE Data

Silver slipped to $38.80 in early European trade Friday as profit-taking and a firmer dollar weighed. The greenback strengthened after U.S. Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3%, though weaker labor market signals kept rate-cut bets alive. Fed’s John Williams reiterated that September cuts remain possible, depending on incoming data. Traders now await July’s PCE inflation for fresh direction.

Resistance is at $39.00, with support at $38.24.