Tariff Tensions Rise, Dollar Steady Above 97.8 (09.08.2025)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Supreme Court is expected to uphold Trump’s tariffs, but a loss could force refunds of up to USD 1 trillion in trade. Trump also threatened retaliation against the EU after a USD 3.5 billion Google fine and signed an order granting tariff exemptions on select goods, benefiting Japan and the EU while penalizing Switzerland.

The dollar index stayed above 97.8 as weak U.S. payrolls (22,000 in August) fueled bets on a September Fed cut. Investors await inflation data to gauge whether easing could be larger. U.S. stock futures edged higher ahead of PPI and CPI releases.

China’s reserves rose USD 29.9 billion to USD 3.322 trillion, the highest since 2015, while gold holdings climbed slightly. WTI crude topped USD 62 after OPEC+ announced a small October supply hike. In Japan, the Nikkei gained 1.1% after PM Ishiba resigned, with GDP revised higher and major exporters leading gains.

Euro Flat With Political Risks in Focus

EUR/USD trades narrowly around 1.1710 in Monday’s late Asian session as investors await France’s confidence vote. Prime Minister François Bayrou called the vote after opposition parties rejected his €44 billion budget plan. Leaders across the opposition pledged to vote against him, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon declaring, “The government will fall.” The vote is due during European trading hours, keeping the pair in consolidation.

Resistance is at 1.1760, with key support at 1.1630.

Yen Weakens Past 148 After Ishiba Resigns

The yen slipped past 148 per dollar on Monday after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, exposing party divisions and pressure from last year’s election loss. Trade talks with the U.S. remain difficult, especially over auto tariffs, adding uncertainty. Still, Q2 GDP was revised higher on strong exports and steady consumption, increasing expectations of a hawkish BoJ, with Governor Ueda signaling more hikes may follow if growth holds.

For USD/JPY, the nearest resistance is at 149.00, while the immediate support is at 146.60.

Gold Consolidates Below $3,600 Ahead of Inflation Data

Gold is consolidating just below $3,600 after last week’s record. A modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar and stronger equity sentiment are capping gains, though Fed easing bets after weak jobs data continue to lend support. Central bank demand underpins the metal, but overbought conditions may limit upside ahead of U.S. inflation data later this week.

Gold is currently facing resistance around $3,600, with strong support near $3,570

GBP/USD Weak as Yen Turmoil Lifts Dollar

GBP/USD slipped below 1.3500 in Asia, extending Friday’s pullback from 1.3555, though bearish momentum remains limited. The dollar gained modestly, supported by yen weakness amid Japanese political turmoil, but upside looks capped as Fed cut bets grow. August’s NFP showed just 22,000 new jobs and June revisions revealed a loss, fueling expectations for more aggressive Fed easing and likely curbing further dollar strength.

The first resistance is seen at 1.3555, with nearby support beginning at 1.3418.

Silver Retreats Slightly After Multi-Year Peak

Silver traded lower near $40.65 in early Asia, pulling back from a 14-year high as markets digested Fed easing bets. Following a weak NFP showing just 22,000 jobs added in August and downward July revisions, traders now expect three 25 bps cuts this year, weighing on the dollar and supporting silver. Meanwhile, President Trump said European leaders will soon meet to discuss Ukraine, expressing cautious optimism over a settlement.

The first resistance at $41.30 and support at $40.40.