US CPI and Tariff Talks Take Market Focus (05.13.2025)

EUR/USD stabilized near 1.1110 despite ECB rate cut expectations, while USD/JPY retreated below 148.00 with BoJ policy uncertainty. Gold slipped further toward $3,230 as risk appetite grew, and silver held above $33. GBP/USD stayed supported at nearly 1.3195 after partial US tariff relief on UK goods and a dovish BoE tone, though attention now turns to US CPI and UK jobs figures.

EUR/USD Steady Above 1.1100, US CPI Awaited

EUR/USD trades near 1.1110 in Tuesday’s Asian session, recovering slightly after dropping more than 2.5% in the previous session. The recent pressure stemmed from US dollar strength following an initial US-China trade agreement over the weekend. The deal, reached in Switzerland, includes a considerable reduction in tariffs, down from 145% to 30% on Chinese goods and from 125% to 10% on US imports into China. This has improved global trade sentiment. Still, the euro remains weighed down by expectations of potential ECB rate cuts, possibly as early as June.

The pair faces resistance at 1.1260, with further upside capped near 1.1460 and 1.1580. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1040, followed by 1.1000 and 1.0960.

USD/JPY Slips Below 148.00

USD/JPY slips to around 147.90 in Tuesday’s session, retreating after gaining over 2% in the previous day. The yen regained ground despite lingering uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s policy direction. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida flagged dual risks from potential US tariffs and suggested Japan’s growth could slow before recovering. He also pointed to rising wages due to labor shortages, which may lift core inflation and expectations.

Resistance stands at 148.60, then 149.80 and 151.20. On the downside, support is noted at 139.70, 137.00, and 135.00.

Gold Falls to $3,230, Risk Appetite Improves

Gold drops toward $3,230 on Tuesday, marking its second straight loss and nearing its lowest level in a month. Optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal, which includes sharp tariff cuts for 90 days, has dented safe-haven demand. Markets are now awaiting US CPI data and April retail sales later this week for clearer guidance on the Fed’s stance.

Resistance is seen at $3,500, $3,430, and $3,360, while support holds at $3,270, $3,100, and $3,165.

Trade Relief Supports GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades around 1.3195 in early European hours, supported by optimism over a partial easing of US tariffs on British cars, steel, and aluminum, despite a 10% tariff on most UK goods remaining in place. The Bank of England’s cautious 25 bp rate cut and its upgraded 2025 growth forecast to 1.0% have also helped limit downside. Focus now turns to UK jobs data and US CPI, which could steer the pair's next move.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3300, resistance levels come in at 1.3450 and 1.3550. Support lies at 1.3160, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2960.

Silver Trades Above $33

Silver (XAG/USD) hovers above $33.00 on Tuesday, benefiting from firm precious metals sentiment before the US CPI release. The recent US-China trade breakthrough continues to shape market direction, and upcoming data will likely determine whether silver can extend its gains.

Key resistance is seen at $33.80, followed by $34.20 and $34.85. Support is found at $32.00, $31.40, and $30.20.