US Futures Drop as Nvidia Falls 3% (08.28.2025)

US stock futures fell on Thursday as tech weakness weighed.

Nvidia dropped nearly 3% after hours despite beating Q2 earnings and revenue, with soft data center sales and no H20 chip shipments to China dragging peers AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC. Analysts said the AI rally remains intact.

Trump’s Pentagon acquired ~10% of Intel and is reportedly eyeing stakes in Lockheed Martin, with Trade Minister Lutnick noting profits tied to US contracts.

WTI crude slipped to $63.8 after earlier gains. EIA reported a 2.39M-barrel draw in US crude, with Cushing and refined product declines signaling firm demand, though consumption typically eases post-Labor Day. New US tariffs on Indian goods and Russia-Ukraine energy strikes added supply risk.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan’s 10Y yield stayed near a 17-year high ahead of inflation and economic data. Chinese equities edged higher, led by AI and chip stocks, after Beijing launched its “AI Plus” initiative, though profit-taking persisted.

Focus shifts to Friday’s PCE inflation print and next week’s payrolls for policy signals before the September Fed meeting.

Euro Steady as Fed Highlights Data Dependence

EUR/USD held near 1.1640 in Thursday’s Asian session as the U.S. Dollar softened after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams. Speaking on CNBC, Williams noted that risks are now “more in balance” and stressed the Fed needs upcoming data before deciding on September policy. His comments reinforced caution, though markets remain convinced of easing. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.12% to just above 98. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 87% probability of a 25 bps cut in September.

Resistance is at 1.1737, with support at 1.1575.

Yen Supported with Fed Conflict

USD/JPY hovered around 147.20 in Thursday’s Asian hours, weighed by political interference concerns after President Trump attempted to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook rejected the move, saying he has no authority. Trump later insisted he expects his nominees to form a board majority supportive of rate cuts, intensifying worries over Fed independence. Traders now eye U.S. Q2 GDP (second estimate), jobless claims, and pending home sales. CME FedWatch pricing puts September cut odds at 87.2%.

Resistance is at 148.80, with support at 146.50.

Gold Retreats Before GDP and PCE

Gold slipped to $3,390 in early European trading Thursday, retreating from a three-week high near $3,400 as the U.S. Dollar firmed and profit-taking set in. Still, demand lingered amid Fed independence risks after Trump moved to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook. Investors now focus on Thursday’s U.S. Q2 GDP, expected at 3.1% annualized, followed by Friday’s PCE inflation data. Stronger readings could strengthen the Dollar and curb gold’s upside.

Resistance stands at $3,408, with support at $3,351.

Pound Holds on Fed Politics

GBP/USD remained steady near 1.3500 in Thursday’s Asian session after two days of gains. The Dollar struggled as Trump’s move to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook stirred political and monetary concerns. Market attention is now on U.S. Q2 GDP and July’s PCE Price Index for further direction. Technicals show support as GBP/USD trades above the 100-day EMA, though momentum indicators suggest consolidation.

Resistance is at 1.3588, with support at 1.3390.

Silver Steadies as Cut Talks Continue

Silver traded around $38.6 per ounce on Thursday, close to one-month highs. The dollar softened as markets raised the odds of a September Fed cut to 89%, up from 82% last week, with Trump pressing for a more dovish Fed board. Industrial demand also underpinned silver, supported by a boom in China’s photovoltaic sector. Solar cell exports jumped over 70% in H1, largely to India, while China installed a record 93 GW of capacity in May, a 300% YoY increase ahead of new grid policies.

Resistance is at $39.00, with support at $38.24.