U.S.–Iran Peace Deal Increases Risk Appetite (06.15.2026)

Global markets started the week on a positive note after the formal U.S.–Iran peace agreement eased geopolitical tensions and reduced inflation concerns. 

The weaker dollar supported gains across major currencies and precious metals, while investors continued to assess the outlook for central bank policy. The euro extended its advance following the ECB’s recent rate hike, sterling strengthened on improving sentiment, and traders turned their attention to this week’s Bank of Japan meeting, where another rate increase is widely expected.

Euro Rallies Past 1.1600

The euro climbed to $1.1606, clearing resistance and securing a weekly gain as a weaker dollar provided substantial tailwinds. The formal announcement of the U.S.–Iran peace agreement lifted a massive layer of geopolitical risk, fueling the dollar's decline. Market participants continued evaluating the ECB's first interest rate hike in three years, with another increase anticipated by September. This tightening comes as the central bank raised its inflation outlook to 3.0% for 2026, despite trimming regional growth projections.

With 1.1600 now flipped from resistance to support, first resistance is seen at 1.1660, while initial support holds at 1.1600, followed by 1.1540.

Gold Surges Past $4,325

Gold soared past $4,325 per ounce on Friday, expanding its rally following the formal announcement of a landmark U.S.–Iran peace agreement. This diplomatic breakthrough defused intense geopolitical and inflationary anxieties across global markets. President Trump confirmed the pact, with Iranian compliance effectively dismantling the risk premium that previously fueled safe-haven demand. Strikingly, the precious metal sliced through its prior $4,220 resistance level, signaling powerful bullish momentum. Recent ECB rate hikes and stubborn U.S. inflation data kept expectations for Federal Reserve monetary tightening firmly intact.

First resistance is seen at $4360, with initial support near $4260.

Yen Keeps Firm Before BOJ

The Japanese yen edged up to 160.08 per dollar on Monday, recovering modestly as markets prepare for this week's pivotal Bank of Japan meeting. Policymakers are widely expected to lift interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, marking the highest level since 1995. With Governor Kazuo Ueda hospitalized, the Deputy Governor will lead the decision. The yen found extra backing from improved risk appetite following the formal U.S.–Iran peace accord, though Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil maintains its structural vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.

Initial resistance stands at 160.90, while the first support is at 159.40. 

Sterling Climbs Near 1.3453

The British pound traded around $1.3453, gaining ground as the landmark U.S.–Iran peace agreement eased Middle East tensions and expectations of tighter Bank of England policy supported sentiment. This geopolitical de-escalation and subsequent drop in energy prices softened the short-term inflation outlook. However, market participants still price in at least one BoE rate hike by September. Having cleared the 1.3400 threshold, the pair faces initial resistance near 1.3500, while primary support rests back at 1.3400.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3400.

Silver Holds Near $70.43

Silver fluctuated near $70.43 per ounce, maintaining its upward momentum after surging over 6% in the previous session. The recovery remains supported by cooling inflation anxieties following the official U.S.–Iran peace agreement. President Trump confirmed the pact, lifting a severe geopolitical weight. Meanwhile, recent ECB rate increases and strong U.S. producer price data kept prospects for further Federal Reserve tightening firmly in play.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $71.15, while support is located around $68.25.