U.S. Jobless Claims Steady with Modest Improvement

The latest data suggests that while the U.S. labor market remains resilient, there are emerging signs of softening.

The U.S. labor market showed signs of stability in the latest weekly data, with both initial and continuing jobless claims reflecting modest improvements despite pockets of regional variation.

Seasonally Adjusted Data: Modest Decline in Initial Claims

For the week ending June 28, 2025, initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 233,000, down from the previous week’s revised 237,000. The 4-week moving average also declined, falling by 3,750 to 241,500, although the prior week's average was revised higher to 245,250.

The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3% for the week ending June 21, and the number of continuing claims remained largely unchanged at 1,964,000 after a slight downward revision. However, the 4-week average of continuing claims climbed to 1,954,000, its highest level since November 2021, up 15,500 from the previous week, suggesting a slower pace of re-employment for those already out of work.

Unadjusted Data: Seasonal Trends More Moderate Than Expected

On an unadjusted basis, initial claims totaled 231,548, a weekly increase of 4,032 (+1.8%), but well below the +3.4% seasonal expectation. This compares to 239,379 claims in the same week of 2024, indicating an overall better position than a year earlier.

The unadjusted insured unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3% for the week ending June 21. Continuing claims (unadjusted) rose by 47,573 to 1,909,465, in line with forecasts. One year earlier, the rate stood at 1.2% with 1,820,786 continuing claims. Total continued weeks claimed across all programs increased to 1,890,509, up both weekly and year-on-year.

Federal Claims: Little Change in Government-related Unemployment

For the week ending June 21:

• Initial claims from former federal employees were 453 (down 27 from the prior week)
• Initial claims from discharged veterans totaled 351 (down 25)
• Continued claims for former federal employees rose to 7,103 (+366)
• Continued claims for veterans declined to 4,394 (−107)

No states triggered the Extended Benefits program during this period.

Regional Trends: Mixed State-Level Movements

States with the highest insured unemployment rates (as of June 14) were:

• California, Minnesota, New Jersey, Puerto Rico: 2.2%
• Rhode Island, Washington: 2.0%
• D.C.: 1.9%
• Massachusetts: 1.8%
• Illinois, Pennsylvania: 1.7%

States with the largest increases in initial claims:

• New Jersey: +5,923
• Connecticut: +2,333
• Oregon: +1,171
• Massachusetts: +1,091
• Rhode Island: +710

States with the largest decreases:

• Minnesota: −5,193
• Pennsylvania: −3,515
• Texas: −2,419
• Illinois: −1,849
• Virginia: −1,206

Labor Market Resilient but Cooling

The latest data suggests that while the U.S. labor market remains resilient, there are emerging signs of softening, particularly in continuing claims, which are creeping higher. Regional disparities also highlight varying economic conditions across states. Overall, the figures are unlikely to trigger immediate policy shifts but will keep attention focused on wage growth and re-employment trends in the months ahead.