The dollar index fell to 97.1, its lowest since Feb 2022, on Fed cut bets and Powell’s dovish tone. US PCE fell 0.3%, weakening the dollar against the euro and pound. The euro rose above $1.17, supported by the ceasefire and Germany’s budget plans. The pound climbed above $1.374 on BoE cut signals. The yen held near two-week highs on dollar weakness and firm Japan inflation.
Brent rose to $68 but is set for its worst week since March as the ceasefire eased supply fears. Strong US fuel demand and a weak dollar limited losses. Gold dropped near $3,250 as risks eased and a US-China deal reduced tariff concerns. Silver held at $35.90 on Fed cut bets, strong demand, and tight supply.
Bond markets were calm, with the MOVE Index stable. US 10-year yields eased to 4.27% on rising rate cut expectations. In Japan, 10-year yields rose to 1.45% as core inflation stayed above target, keeping rate hike hopes alive.
The US Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52 in June matched May’s 15-month high and beating forecasts of 51. This signals continued expansion. Factory output rose for the first time in four months, and new orders dipped only slightly. Employment grew at its fastest pace in a year, while inventories and supplier delivery times supported activity. Input and selling prices climbed at the quickest rate since July 2022 as firms passed on higher costs. Chris Williamson from S&P Global noted strong domestic demand partly reflected stockpiling ahead of tariffs, which may reverse soon.
The Services PMI edged down to 53.1 in June from 53.7, slightly above expectations of 52.9. This indicated steady momentum in services. New business increased on stronger domestic demand, and offsetting weaker export orders due to tariff concerns. Firms continued hiring as backlogs grew, while financing, wages, and fuel costs pushed prices higher. However, future business confidence fell amid tariff uncertainty.
US consumer confidence fell in June, with the Conference Board Index dropping to 93 from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index slipped 6.4 points to 129.1, and the Expectations Index dropped 4.6 points to 69. Stephanie Guichard at The Conference Board noted consumers were less positive about business conditions and job availability, though the labor market remains solid.
New single-family home sales plunged 13.7% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 units, erasing April’s revised 9.6% gain and marking the sharpest drop since June 2022. Sales fell across the South (-21% to 349,000), West (-5.4% to 159,000), and Midwest (-7.1% to 78,000). The median price rose 1.4% to $507,000, with supply at 9.8 months at the current sales pace.
US durable goods orders surged 16.4% in May to $343.6 billion, the largest increase since July 2014. It exceeded forecasts of 8.5% and recovering from April’s revised 6.6% drop. Transportation equipment soared 48.3%, led by a 230.8% jump in nondefense aircraft and parts. Orders for capital goods rose 48%, including nondefense (+49.4%) and defense (+38.7%). Orders also increased for communications (+2.9%), computers (+2.4%), electronics (+1.5%), electrical equipment (+0.8%), and machinery (+0.3%). Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business spending, increased 1.7%, beating the forecast of 0.1%.
The US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 2025, steeper than the previous estimate of -0.2%, marking the first contraction in three years. Consumer spending rose only 0.5%, down from 1.2%, the slowest pace since 2020, while exports grew just 0.4% versus the earlier 2.4% estimate. Imports surged 37.9% (down from 42.6%), which are driven by stockpiling ahead of tariffs. Federal spending dropped 4.6%, while fixed investment climbed 7.6%, slightly below the previous 7.8% estimate.
Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, beating expectations for unchanged claims but remaining above this year’s average. Continuing claims rose by 37,000 to 1,974,000, exceeding the forecast of 1,950,000 and reaching the highest since November 2021. Claims from federal employees dropped by 55 to 480 amid recent government layoffs.
Annual inflation, measured by the PCE Price Index, increased to 2.3% in May from 2.2% in April, matching expectations. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 2.7% from 2.6%. Monthly, PCE rose 0.1%, while core PCE increased 0.2%. Personal income fell 0.4%, and personal spending declined 0.1%, indicating cautious consumer behavior despite inflation pressures.
The US Dollar Index dropped to 97.1, its lowest since February 2022, with a weekly decline nearing 2% amid growing Fed rate cut expectations. Powell’s dovish testimony and speculation that Trump may replace him by September or October pressured the dollar. Personal consumption fell 0.3% in May, the largest drop this year, while core PCE rose 0.2%. The euro climbed past $1.17, its highest since 2021, supported by Germany’s budget plans and NATO’s increased defense spending target. The pound rose above $1.374, benefiting from a weaker dollar and BoE’s dovish tone. The yen held around 144.3, supported by dollar weakness and Japan’s inflation staying above the BoJ’s 2% target.
Brent crude traded near $68 on Friday, rebounding from a volatile week after the Israel-Iran ceasefire eased supply concerns. Prices swung within a $15 range, rising after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites before easing as the ceasefire held. Trump signaled mixed stances on Iran’s oil exports while US crude inventories fell by 5.84 million barrels to an 11-year seasonal low, supporting prices.
Gold dipped to $3,250 per ounce, a four-week low, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand. The US-China London trade deal calmed markets, with China easing export restrictions and the US lifting some trade barriers. Silver held near $35.90, backed by Fed cut expectations, strong industrial demand, and supply constraints, outperforming gold with an 11% gain in June.
US equities hit record highs last week, with major indices rising 3–4%, excluding the Dow, as Iran-Israel tensions eased and rate cut hopes lifted sentiment. The potential for three rate cuts instead of two added to the momentum. Nvidia led gains with a 7% rise, followed by Microsoft (+4%), Apple (+2%), and Meta (+4%), while Google underperformed, slipping 1.4%.
El dólar estadounidense se fortaleció el viernes después de que el presidente Trump anunciara un arancel del 35 % sobre las importaciones canadienses y señalara posibles aranceles de la UE, lo que aumentó la demanda de refugios seguros.
El dólar se debilitó el jueves después de que las actas de la Fed revelaran que los responsables políticos consideran probable una bajada de tipos a finales de este año, lo que empujó a la baja los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y al alza el euro y la libra.
Detalle Las materias primas caen mientras los mercados se preparan para las actas del FOMC (07.09.2025)El EUR/USD cayó hacia 1,1700 antes de las actas del FOMC, mientras que el yen japonés se debilitó por debajo de 147 por tercera sesión consecutiva, debido al agravamiento de las tensiones en las negociaciones comerciales entre Estados Unidos y Japón.
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