The dollar weakened on Thursday after Fed minutes revealed policymakers see rate cuts as likely later this year, pushing Treasury yields lower and lifting the euro and pound.
Gold rose near $3,320 on safe-haven demand, while the yen gained as trade tensions escalated following Trump’s confirmed tariffs on Brazil and Japan. Silver extended losses despite dovish Fed signals, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising yields. Markets remain cautious amid mixed U.S. data and global trade uncertainties.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 236K | 233K |
| 17:00 | USD | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.844% | |
| 20:30 | USD | Fed's Balance Sheet | 6,660B |
The EUR/USD pair rose 0.2% to $1.1747 on Thursday, supported by broad U.S. dollar weakness after Treasury yields fell and the Fed's June minutes signaled most policymakers view rate cuts as appropriate later this year. While Trump’s new tariff threats had limited impact beyond Brazil, easing geopolitical concerns and improving risk sentiment supported the euro, which gained as markets shifted focus away from aggressive U.S. trade actions.
Resistance for the pair is at 1.1750, while support is at 1.1685.
| R1: 1.1750 | S1: 1.1685 |
| R2: 1.1810 | S2: 1.1600 |
| R3: 1.1830 | S3: 1.1545 |
The Japanese yen rose to around 146 per dollar on Thursday, extending gains as U.S. Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened. Rising trade tensions added to risk aversion after Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and confirmed a 25% tariff on Japanese goods from August 1. U.S.-Japan talks stalled over Japan’s rice market protections. PM Ishiba criticized the tariffs but hopes for continued dialogue, as analysts warn of GDP impacts.
Resistance is at 147.00, with major support at 144.85.
| R1: 147.00 | S1: 144.85 |
| R2: 148.15 | S2: 143.55 |
| R3: 148.65 | S3: 142.40 |
Gold climbed to around $3,320 per ounce on Thursday, extending gains as a weaker U.S. dollar and trade tensions supported demand. Investors evaluated new tariff warning letters from President Trump targeting Brazil, raising concerns about broader disruptions. Meanwhile, the Fed’s June minutes showed officials divided on rate cuts, with views ranging from immediate easing to no cuts this year, maintaining a cautious, data-driven stance amid mixed economic signals.
Resistance is at $3,365, while support holds at $3,285.
| R1: 3365 | S1: 3285 |
| R2: 3395 | S2: 3250 |
| R3: 3430 | S3: 3205 |
GBP/USD rose 0.15% to around 1.360 on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after Treasury yields fell and Fed minutes signaled possible rate cuts later this year. Despite the U.K. government’s recent welfare policy reversal and concerns over rising public debt, the pound gained as market focus shifted to global risk appetite and dollar softness, though fiscal uncertainty in the U.K. may cap further gains.
Resistance is at 1.3600, while support holds at 1.3500.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3500 |
| R2: 1.3700 | S2: 1.3430 |
| R3: 1.3760 | S3: 1.3380 |
Silver traded below $36.50 per ounce on Thursday, extending losses as FOMC minutes suggested a possible Fed rate cut later this year, though officials were divided on timing. Dovish signals provided some support, but a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on demand for non-yielding assets. Renewed trade tensions, with Trump confirming new tariffs on copper and potential duties on pharmaceuticals, added caution and limited gains in precious metals.
Resistance is at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.
| R1: 37.50 | S1: 35.40 |
| R2: 39.00 | S2: 34.85 |
| R3: 41.00 | S3: 33.80 |
Ceasefire Pause Eases Oil and Inflation Fears (27 – 31 July)Global markets began the week on a more positive footing after a pause in US and Iranian military operations reduced immediate concerns over energy supplies and inflation. The United States quietly suspended its nearly two-week strike campaign against Iran late Friday, while Tehran halted retaliatory operations and entered discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The developments pushed oil prices sharply lower, supporting precious metals and government bonds after weeks of pressure from rising energy costs.
Detail Fed in Focus Amid Easing Tensions (07.27.2026)Global markets began the week on a firmer footing as a pause in U.S.–Iran hostilities eased concerns over energy supplies and inflation.
Higher oil prices lifted inflation expectations, pushing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 78%.
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