The euro trades near $1.0370 as the dollar index eases from last year's strength, supported by rising U.S. yields and anticipated pro-growth Trump policies.
The yen holds at 157 amid potential BOJ rate changes and intervention risks, while gold climbs above $2,630 on continued safe-haven appeal. The pound hovers around 1.2535, awaiting U.S. data for further cues, and silver gains despite subdued China PMI figures, with investors looking to upcoming U.S. reports for market direction.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 8:55 | EUR | HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 42.5 | 43 |
| 9:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 45.2 | 45.2 |
| 9:30 | GBP | S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 47.3 | 48 |
| 13:30 | USD | Continuing Jobless Claims | | 1,910K |
| 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 220K | 219K |
| 14:45 | USD | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 48.3 | 49.7 |
| 16:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | | -4.237M |
| 18:00 | USD | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | 3.10% | 3.10% |
| 21:30 | USD | Fed's Balance Sheet | | 6,886B |
The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.0370 as the dollar index eases to 108.3 on Thursday, starting softer after a strong 2024. Last year, the dollar gained 7% amid the Fed's cautious rate cuts and inflation concerns. It also raised expectations of Trump's potential return, with policies like deregulation, tax cuts, and tariffs seen as inflationary. Safe-haven demand driven by global growth concerns and geopolitical risks further strengthened the dollar. Traders now await jobless claims data for labor market insights.
From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.
| R1: 1.0465 | S1: 1.0330 |
| R2: 1.0515 | S2: 1.0300 |
| R3: 1.0575 | S3: 1.0230 |
The Japanese yen trades around 157.00 per dollar on Thursday as investors assess the BoJ's rate outlook. Rising inflation and December meeting minutes hinting at a potential rate hike are under review. Traders also watch for possible intervention after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato voiced concerns over the yen’s weakness. The yen is set to decline over 10% in 2024, marking its fourth straight year of depreciation.
The key resistance level appears to be 158.30, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 154.90 is the first major support, followed by 153.40 and 152.40 if the price moves lower.
| R1: 158.30 | S1: 154.90 |
| R2: 160.00 | S2: 153.40 |
| R3: 161.00 | S3: 152.40 |
Gold rose above $2,630 per ounce on Thursday, extending last year’s 27% rally, its best since 2010, driven by US monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and record central bank purchases. Investors focus on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts amid rising inflation, which has slightly reduced gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, attention turns to potential challenges under the Trump administration and China’s economic revitalization efforts. A World Gold Council survey suggests continued central bank gold buying, supporting demand.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2640 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2655 and 2670 consequently. On the downside 2600 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.
| R1: 2640 | S1: 2600 |
| R2: 2655 | S2: 2575 |
| R3: 2670 | S3: 2545 |
The GBP/USD pair started trading in the new year at around 1.2535. In the later hours of the day, the upcoming PMI and unemployment data from the US, along with a relatively quiet economic calendar in the UK, are expected to create volatility in the GBP/USD pair.
The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2645 and 1.2700. On the downside 1.2500 will be the first support level. 1.2460 and 1.2400 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
| R1: 1.2600 | S1: 1.2500 |
| R2: 1.2645 | S2: 1.2460 |
| R3: 1.2700 | S3: 1.2400 |
Silver, which started the new year with an upward trend, is trading at 29.30 on Thursday morning. Although China’s Manufacturing PMI data, released during the night, came in below expectations, it remained above the 50 mark, indicating expansion. Additionally, the dollar index's subdued start to the year has provided further support for precious metals. Later in the day, the upcoming US unemployment and PMI data are also expected to influence the price of precious metals.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 29.85 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 30.20 and 30.70 consequently. On the downside 28.50 will be the first support level. 28.00 and 27.50 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
| R1: 29.85 | S1: 28.50 |
| R2: 30.20 | S2: 28.00 |
| R3: 30.70 | S3: 27.50 |
US Manufacturing PMI Signals Sixth Month of Contraction (01.03.2025)The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.4 in December 2024, compared to 49.7 in November.
Detail
Unemployment Claims See Notable Declines (01.03.2025)In the week of December 28, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims reached 211,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the revised 220,000 in the prior week.
Detail Dollar Rise Continues, Euro and Yen Under Pressure (01.03.2025)The US dollar strengthened against the euro as the US economy outperformed, leading to fewer expected Fed rate cuts.
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