Markets paused on Wednesday as traders reacted to improving U.S.-China trade sentiment, cautious central bank tones, and anticipation of upcoming inflation data.
The U.S. dollar gained strength, pulling EUR/USD down to 1.1400 and weighing on the British pound, which was already under pressure from weak UK labor data. The yen hovered near 144.9 on fading demand for safe-haven assets, while gold remained steady near $3,330 ahead of the U.S. CPI release. Silver retreated from a 13-year high despite ongoing industrial demand and supply concerns.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 | USD | Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | USD | CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 0.100M | -4.304M |
EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1400 during Wednesday’s Asian session, snapping a two-day winning streak as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid improving trade sentiment with China. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said both sides had agreed on a framework to implement the Geneva Consensus, while China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang called the talks constructive and said the proposal would be reviewed by Chinese leadership. Bloomberg noted that final approval is still required from both governments.
Meanwhile, markets turned cautious ahead of key U.S. CPI data, closely watched for clues on how tariffs are affecting inflation. U.S. Treasury yields held steady, with the 2-year at 4.01% and the 10-year at 4.46%.
In Europe, the ECB’s 25 bps rate cut last week brought borrowing costs to their lowest since November 2022. Inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised lower, suggesting the easing cycle may be nearing its end. ECB officials, including Olli Rehn and Francois Villeroy de Galhau, reiterated that policy decisions will remain data-dependent and reviewed at each meeting.
Resistance is seen at 1.1460, while support stands at 1.1380.
| R1: 1.1460 | S1: 1.1380 |
| R2: 1.1500 | S2: 1.1320 |
| R3: 1.1580 | S3: 1.1260 |
The Japanese yen stayed weak around 144.9 per dollar as improving U.S.-China trade sentiment reduced appetite for safe-haven currencies. The two nations agreed to move forward with the Geneva Consensus framework. Domestically, Japan’s producer prices rose just 3.2% in May, an eight-month low. BoJ Governor Ueda maintained that rate hikes remain on the table if inflation approaches the 2% goal.
Resistance is located at 145.30, with support near 142.50.
| R1: 145.30 | S1: 142.50 |
| R2: 146.10 | S2: 142.10 |
| R3: 148.15 | S3: 141.50 |
Gold traded sideways near $3,330 per ounce, muted by optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and investor caution ahead of U.S. inflation data. Though a preliminary framework was reached on the Geneva Consensus, markets await further details. The World Bank revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%, warning that tariffs are dragging on momentum.
Resistance is set at $3,352, while support holds at $3,290.
| R1: 3352 | S1: 3290 |
| R2: 3392 | S2: 3250 |
| R3: 3430 | S3: 3220 |
The British pound dropped to around 1.3475 as weaker labor market figures and renewed U.S. dollar strength weighed on sentiment. UK unemployment rose to 4.6%, while the May claimant count jumped by 33.1K, and wage growth came in softer than expected. These signs of a cooling job market added pressure on the pound, while easing U.S.-China tensions kept the dollar supported.
Markets now await the U.S. CPI report for further Fed policy clues.
Resistance is seen at 1.3600, with support at 1.3425.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3425 |
| R2: 1.3750 | S2: 1.3165 |
| R3: 1.3850 | S3: 1.2890 |
Silver pulled back to $36.50 as safe-haven demand cooled on signs of progress in U.S.-China relations. Talks over rare earth exports continued, and President Trump reported “good signs.” Despite the drop, industrial demand, especially from the solar sector, remains strong. The Silver Institute reported a 15% supply shortfall in 2024 and expects another deficit in 2025.
Resistance is located at 36.90, while support stands at 35.40.
| R1: 36.90 | S1: 35.40 |
| R2: 37.20 | S2: 34.85 |
| R3: 37.50 | S3: 33.80 |
U.S. Jobless Claims Steady with Modest ImprovementThe latest data suggests that while the U.S. labor market remains resilient, there are emerging signs of softening.
Detail Currencies and Commodities Hold Range (07.03.2025)Major currencies and commodities traded cautiously on Thursday as markets awaited crucial US labor data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Detail
US Private Sector Loses 33,000 Jobs in JuneThe US private sector shed 33,000 jobs in June, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report compiled with Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab. The data highlights a notable slowdown in hiring despite continued resilience in wage growth.
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