Reports suggesting that Iran could suspend discussions with the United States and consider restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns about energy supplies, inflation, and global growth.
The stronger dollar weighed on major currencies, pushing the euro and pound closer to recent lows, while the yen moved toward levels that previously triggered intervention warnings from Japanese authorities. Precious metals showed mixed performance, with gold remaining below $4,500 and silver holding near $75 as traders assessed the implications of a prolonged standoff.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 10:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) (May) | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| 15:00 | USD | JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) | 6.870M | 6.866M |
EUR/USD drifted toward the 1.16 level as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment toward the single currency. Expectations of a quick breakthrough faded after reports suggested Iran could suspend discussions with Washington and move toward closing the Strait of Hormuz, citing alleged ceasefire violations following recent Israeli operations in Lebanon.
The developments revived concerns about energy costs and their potential impact on the Eurozone economy, pushing the euro closer to its lowest levels since early April.
For EUR/USD, the first resistance stands at 1.1670, while the nearest support is located at 1.1600.
| R1: 1.1670 | S1: 1.1600 |
| R2: 1.1700 | S2: 1.1550 |
| R3: 1.1750 | S3: 1.1500 |
Gold remained below $4,500 as the diplomatic outlook between Washington and Tehran deteriorated. Reports from Iranian media indicated that communication with the United States had been suspended following recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon, adding another obstacle to an already fragile negotiation process.
First resistance is seen at $4570, with initial support near $4460.
| R1: 4570 | S1: 4460 |
| R2: 4620 | S2: 4420 |
| R3: 4700 | S3: 4350 |
The yen weakened beyond 159.5 per dollar, drifting ever closer to a level that has repeatedly drawn the attention of Japanese authorities. Each move toward 160 revives memories of past intervention efforts, and this time is no different.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reminded markets that officials remain ready to act if currency swings become excessive.
Initial resistance stands at 159.95, while the first support is located at 159.00.
| R1: 159.95 | S1: 159.00 |
| R2: 160.50 | S2: 158.30 |
| R3: 161.20 | S3: 157.50 |
Sterling drifted toward $1.34, touching its weakest level since May 19 as concerns over Middle East developments and energy markets resurfaced.
With few factors supporting the currency, the pound extended its decline from earlier monthly highs.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3510, with support around 1.3410.
| R1: 1.3510 | S1: 1.3410 |
| R2: 1.3560 | S2: 1.3360 |
| R3: 1.3630 | S3: 1.3300 |
Silver hovered near $75 as Iranian media reported that contacts with the United States had been suspended following recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Trump maintained that negotiations were still underway and expressed confidence that an agreement involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could be reached in the coming week.
With uncertainty surrounding inflation and interest-rate expectations still unresolved, silver remained largely range-bound.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $77.20, while support is located around $73.90.
| R1: 77.20 | S1: 73.90 |
| R2: 78.80 | S2: 72.40 |
| R3: 80.50 | S3: 68.30 |
Global markets traded cautiously as shifting Federal Reserve expectations and easing geopolitical risks continued to shape sentiment. President Trump warned he'll bomb Oman if it stands in Washington's way, as reports suggest Iran and Oman are moving toward a deal on Strait of Hormuz control.
Global markets started the week with the dollar under pressure as softer U.S. retail sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
Detail
Cooling US Data Weakens Dollar Amid Energy Risks (17 – 21 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under renewed pressure as softer inflation, retail sales, and employment data reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dollar Index traded around 99.61, while markets assigned roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September. Gold and silver extended their gains as the shift in Fed expectations supported precious metals, while the euro and pound benefited from the dollar’s declining yield advantage.
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