Weak U.S. Data Supports Metals and Currencies (08.17.2026)

Global markets started the week with the dollar under pressure as softer U.S. retail sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike. 

The euro approached 1.1600, while gold climbed above $4,400 and silver neared $66 amid lower rate expectations and persistent Middle East risks. The yen also recovered as the dollar weakened, while sterling consolidated near 1.35. Investors now turn to the FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole for further signals on the Fed’s policy outlook.

Euro Nears 1.1600

The euro strengthened toward 1.1570, approaching resistance at 1.1600 as US dollar momentum wanes. Weak July US retail sales alongside muted inflation figures reduced September Fed rate hike odds to nearly 33%. Eurozone inflation at 2.9% supports continued ECB tightening expectations, though Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising European gas prices pose ongoing risks.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1590 while the support starts from 1.1520.

Gold Breaks Above $4,400

Gold advanced beyond $4,400 per ounce on Monday, building on momentum as muted US inflation, softening retail sales, and weakening consumer confidence lowered September Federal Reserve rate hike odds to nearly 33%. While traders await the upcoming FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole address, persistent geopolitical friction from fresh Middle East strikes and new Iranian sanctions supported bullion's safe-haven appeal.

First resistance is seen at $4420, with initial support near $4360.

Yen Recovers to 159

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 159 per dollar on Monday, regaining ground lost last week as a softening US dollar reflected weaker economic data. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in September rose to roughly 67%. The yen gained despite Japan's second-quarter annualized GDP growth slowing to 1.1% due to sluggish domestic consumption, while traders remained vigilant for intervention and prospective Bank of Japan rate increases.

First resistance is seen at 160.00, with initial support near 158.60.

Sterling Consolidates Near 1.35

GBP/USD trades near 1.35, maintaining a steady consolidation pattern. Technical levels show firm support at 1.3400 and strong resistance at 1.3600 as the market awaits a clear breakout catalyst. With cautious trading volumes preceding critical employment and inflation reports, traders continue balancing Federal Reserve rate expectations against Bank of England monetary policy, while broader market risk sentiment drives short-term direction.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3510.

Silver Climbs Near $66

Silver climbed toward $66 per ounce on Monday, extending recent gains as soft US economic reports, including muted inflation, declining retail sales, and weakening consumer sentiment, reduced September Fed rate hike probabilities to roughly one-in-three. While investors await the FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole address for monetary policy guidance, geopolitical friction in the Middle East sustained safe-haven demand, even as ongoing regional oil shipments helped moderate broader energy inflation concerns.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $66.20, while support is located around $64.40.