The dollar softened after weak US labor data, keeping the euro above $1.16 and the pound over $1.34 despite UK fiscal concerns.
The yen also firmed past 148 as the BoJ stuck with its tightening outlook. Gold steadied near $3,540 after a strong rally, while silver eased 1% to $40.5/oz on profit-taking but remained underpinned by Fed cut bets. Attention now turns to Friday’s payrolls for the next key signal.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:15 | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) | 73K | 104K |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 230K | 229K |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) | 55.4 | 55.7 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 50.9 | 50.1 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug) | - | 69.9 |
| 16:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | - | -2.392M |
EUR/USD held above $1.1650 on Thursday, trading close to one-month highs as soft US employment figures weighed on the dollar and boosted Fed cut expectations. Eurozone inflation at 2.1% further supported the case for the ECB to keep rates unchanged despite ongoing fiscal challenges.
Resistance is at 1.1725, while support is at 1.1620.
| R1: 1.1725 | S1: 1.1620 |
| R2: 1.1795 | S2: 1.1570 |
| R3: 1.1835 | S3: 1.1520 |
The yen advanced beyond 148 against the dollar, reversing earlier losses after weaker US jobs data revived speculation of Fed easing. At home, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed that rate hike plans remain in place, provided growth and inflation continue to show improvement.
Resistance is at 149.30, with support at 147.20.
| R1: 149.30 | S1: 147.20 |
| R2: 150.90 | S2: 145.60 |
| R3: 154.50 | S3: 142.75 |
Gold hovered near $3,535 per ounce, pausing its strongest rally since March but staying at record highs. The metal remains supported by demand, and the Fed cut expectations. Uncertainty deepened as the Trump administration appealed a ruling that overturned most of its global tariffs, raising the risk of a Supreme Court battle. Concerns over Fed independence and rising US debt also continued to underpin gold.
Resistance is at $3,555, with support at $3,510.
| R1: 3555 | S1: 3510 |
| R2: 3580 | S2: 3490 |
| R3: 3640 | S3: 3470 |
GBP/USD traded above $1.34 as softer US jobs data strengthened Fed easing bets. However, the UK outlook stayed uncertain before the Autumn Budget, with growing fiscal pressures on tax and spending. BoE Governor Bailey highlighted “greater doubt” on the timing of rate cuts, with markets now pricing the next move in April.
Resistance is at 1.3525, with support at 1.3330.
| R1: 1.3525 | S1: 1.3330 |
| R2: 1.3595 | S2: 1.3270 |
| R3: 1.3700 | S3: 1.3140 |
Silver retreated 1% to $40.50 per ounce ahead of key US labor data. Even so, the outlook stayed firm with support from Fed rate cut expectations, safe-haven demand, and industrial buying from China’s solar sector. Precious metals have surged in recent weeks, with markets now pricing in nearly a 98% probability of a 25 bps cut this month.
Resistance is at $41.30, with support at $40.20.
| R1: 41.30 | S1: 40.20 |
| R2: 42.50 | S2: 39.75 |
| R3: 43.65 | S3: 39.00 |
The dollar index stabilized near 98.8 Thursday as a reported U.S. submarine sinking of an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka and the sixth day of the U.S.–Israeli campaign fueled fears of a prolonged, inflationary conflict.
Global markets remain dominated by geopolitical risk as escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran fuels a strong shift toward safe-haven assets. The dollar index hit 99.3 Wednesday, rising for a third day as conflict concerns fueled inflation and shifted Fed rate cut expectations from July to September.
A US court rejected Trump's tariff refund delay as the Dollar (98.5) and 10 year yield (4.04%) held gains amid Middle East escalation and inflation fears.
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