Dollar Weakness Supports FX and Metals (09.04.2025)

The dollar softened after weak US labor data, keeping the euro above $1.16 and the pound over $1.34 despite UK fiscal concerns.

The yen also firmed past 148 as the BoJ stuck with its tightening outlook. Gold steadied near $3,540 after a strong rally, while silver eased 1% to $40.5/oz on profit-taking but remained underpinned by Fed cut bets. Attention now turns to Friday’s payrolls for the next key signal.

Euro Steady on Weak US Jobs Data

EUR/USD held above $1.1650 on Thursday, trading close to one-month highs as soft US employment figures weighed on the dollar and boosted Fed cut expectations. Eurozone inflation at 2.1% further supported the case for the ECB to keep rates unchanged despite ongoing fiscal challenges.

Resistance is at 1.1725, while support is at 1.1620.

Yen Strengthens Past 148 as Dollar Softens

The yen advanced beyond 148 against the dollar, reversing earlier losses after weaker US jobs data revived speculation of Fed easing. At home, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed that rate hike plans remain in place, provided growth and inflation continue to show improvement.

Resistance is at 149.30, with support at 147.20.

Gold Holds at $3,535 Despite Paused Rally

Gold hovered near $3,535 per ounce, pausing its strongest rally since March but staying at record highs. The metal remains supported by demand, and the Fed cut expectations. Uncertainty deepened as the Trump administration appealed a ruling that overturned most of its global tariffs, raising the risk of a Supreme Court battle. Concerns over Fed independence and rising US debt also continued to underpin gold.

Resistance is at $3,555, with support at $3,510.

Pound Above $1.34 with Autumn Budget Risks

GBP/USD traded above $1.34 as softer US jobs data strengthened Fed easing bets. However, the UK outlook stayed uncertain before the Autumn Budget, with growing fiscal pressures on tax and spending. BoE Governor Bailey highlighted “greater doubt” on the timing of rate cuts, with markets now pricing the next move in April.

Resistance is at 1.3525, with support at 1.3330.

Silver Slips from $40.50 After 14-Year Highs

Silver retreated 1% to $40.50 per ounce ahead of key US labor data. Even so, the outlook stayed firm with support from Fed rate cut expectations, safe-haven demand, and industrial buying from China’s solar sector. Precious metals have surged in recent weeks, with markets now pricing in nearly a 98% probability of a 25 bps cut this month.

Resistance is at $41.30, with support at $40.20.