Dollar Weighs on Majors as ECB and BOJ Stay Cautious (11.04.2025)

The euro slipped toward $1.15, its weakest level since July, after cautious ECB remarks signaled limited room for further easing. 

The yen traded near 154.3 per dollar as the BOJ maintained its restrained tone, contrasting with the Fed’s hawkish stance. Meanwhile, the pound fell to April lows below $1.32 ahead of the BoE decision, while gold dropped below $4,000 as Fed cut bets eased. Silver remained stable near $48 ahead of key U.S. data, reflecting a cautious tone across markets.

Euro Drops on ECB Caution

EUR/USD fell for a fifth straight session to around 1.1510 in Asia on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger USD as markets reassess Fed rate-cut expectations. Powell signaled uncertainty over a December cut, with odds dropping to 65% from 94% a week ago. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown adds economic risk, though EUR losses may be limited as the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged this year. 

Technically, 1.1480 is the key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1570.

Yen Weakens Toward 154 as BOJ Stays Cautious

The yen traded near 154.3 per dollar, close to a nine-month low, as the BOJ’s cautious tone contrasted with the Fed’s hawkish stance. The BOJ kept rates unchanged last week, with Governor Ueda warning that global trade tensions could hurt growth and profits. Though he hinted at a possible December hike, his cautious remarks disappointed investors.

Technically, resistance stands near 154.80, while support is firm at 153.20.

Gold Falls Below $4,000 as Fed Cut Bets Ease

Gold dropped below $4,000 per ounce on Tuesday as expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts weakened. Several Fed officials avoided signaling support for further easing in December, following last week’s reduction that Chair Powell suggested could be the final cut of 2025. Market odds for another cut next month have fallen to about 65% from over 90% earlier. Investors now await U.S. private employment data for clues on the Fed’s next steps.

From a technical perspective, support is around 3960, and resistance is at 4080.

Pound Slides to April Lows on Fed as Traders Await BoE Decision

The pound fell below $1.32, its weakest since April, as a stronger dollar followed the Fed’s 25bps cut and Powell’s cautious comments. Sterling was also weighed by rising BoE rate-cut bets and concerns that November’s budget could slow growth. Prime Minister Starmer left tax hikes open, while the OBR may lower productivity forecasts, risking a £20 billion shortfall. Softer inflation reinforced expectations of monetary easing.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3100, with resistance around 1.3180.

Silver Steadies Around $48 Ahead of Key U.S. Data

Silver held near $48 during Tuesday’s Asian session, with little movement ahead of key U.S. data. The White House confirmed China will lift rare earth export curbs and end chip probes, while the U.S. paused tariffs and canceled a planned 100% duty on Chinese goods. Last month, silver briefly hit record highs amid a short squeeze before retreating on profit-taking.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $48.50, while support is located around $47.80.