Dovish Wave Lifts Metals as Yen Tightens (12.04.2025)

Markets on Thursday leaned toward a dovish global outlook, lifting precious metals and reshaping major currency moves.

The euro rose above $1.1670 as steady Eurozone inflation supported expectations that the ECB will hold rates through 2026, while the pound climbed toward $1.33 on stronger UK services data and a softer US dollar.

Gold hovered above $4,210 after ADP showed a sharp decline in US private-sector jobs, pushing the probability of a Fed cut next week to nearly 90%. Silver stayed close to record highs near $58, supported by strong ETF inflows and tightening supply across London and Shanghai.

EUR/USD Slips Slightly but Losses Stay Contained

EUR/USD eased toward 1.1655 in early Thursday trading, trimming part of Wednesday’s move. A mild US dollar rebound added pressure, though traction for the USD remains limited as markets continue to expect a Fed rate cut next week. The euro stays supported by the view that the ECB has reached the end of its easing cycle, reinforced by President Lagarde’s comments on inflation holding close to 2%.

EUR/USD finds support at 1.1600, while resistance is seen near 1.1690.

Yen Pushes Stronger as BOJ Signals Gain Momentum

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 155 per dollar on Thursday, trading near a two-week high as speculation of a BOJ rate increase continued to build. Governor Ueda’s confidence in Japan’s outlook and the government’s alignment with the BOJ helped solidify expectations of a possible adjustment this month.

USD/JPY faces resistance near 157.95, with support positioned around 154.20.

Gold Held as ADP Miss Lifts Cut Expectations

Gold hovered above $4,210, staying close to a six-week high as ADP data showed a sharp 32,000 drop in private-sector jobs, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. The hiring slowdown, the weakest since 2023, strengthened the case for policy easing, with markets now assigning nearly a 90% probability of a 25-bp move.

Gold sees support around $4,170, while resistance is located near $4,250.

GBP/USD Steadies, Downside Limited

GBP/USD slipped toward 1.3330, easing from a two-month high as renewed USD demand trimmed gains. Even so, expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, supported by soft PMI and ADP figures, continued to cushion the downside. Political uncertainty adds another layer as Trump plans to reveal Powell’s successor early next year, with Kevin Hassett viewed as the frontrunner.

GBP/USD holds support near 1.3260, with resistance emerging around 1.3390.

Silver Trades Near Record Levels

Silver traded around $58.25, staying close to record highs and up roughly 100% year-to-date, supported by tightening global supply and expectations of further Fed easing. Silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons on Tuesday, the largest increase since 2022, while London inflows hit historic levels and Shanghai inventories dropped to a ten-year low.

Silver meets resistance near $59.10, while support is seen around $56.90.