Global markets remained cautious as investors balanced expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move with ongoing diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
The dollar index held near 100, recovering from the prior session as investors weighed the Fed's policy outlook amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Other major currencies traded in narrow ranges while gold and silver held recent gains amid easing geopolitical risks. Attention is now firmly on Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could play a key role in shaping expectations for a potential September rate decision.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 14:00 | USD | JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) | 7.420M | 7.594M |
EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1508 following a recovery from multi-week lows of 1.1366. The pair remains caught between the Federal Reserve's non-committal rate pause and stronger Eurozone GDP growth at 0.4%. Meanwhile, easing Middle East geopolitics has dampened safe-haven Dollar demand, with broader FX markets eyeing key resistance in the 1.1530-1.1570 region.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1540 while the support starts from 1.1480.
| R1: 1.1540 | S1: 1.1480 |
| R2: 1.1570 | S2: 1.1440 |
| R3: 1.1610 | S3: 1.1400 |
Gold traded in a tight range around $4,050, as investors weighed potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments against broader Federal Reserve policy expectations. While President Trump described his offer as Tehran's final chance to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran denied direct negotiations despite acknowledging progress via Oman. Meanwhile, markets price a 65% chance of a September Fed rate hike following July's pause, even as New York Fed President John Williams maintained that policy is well-positioned and expects inflation to moderate.
First resistance is seen at $4085, with initial support near $4020.
| R1: 4085 | S1: 4020 |
| R2: 4120 | S2: 3970 |
| R3: 4160 | S3: 3900 |
The Japanese Yen traded near 157 per dollar, maintaining recent gains as market participants remain cautious following coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent encouraged expanding the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility to backstop future joint operations. BOJ data indicates Tokyo spent ¥5.33 trillion on Friday, following a record ¥8.45 trillion deployment, after energy costs, fiscal pressures, and rate gaps dragged the currency to 40-year lows.
Initial resistance stands at 158.60, while the first support is at 157,00.
| R1: 158.60 | S1: 157.00 |
| R2: 160.00 | S2: 155.80 |
| R3: 162.10 | S3: 153.50 |
GBP/USD is trading around 1.3457, consolidating after selling pressure capped a rally past seven-week highs above 1.3500. Subdued UK manufacturing PMI data and a rebounding US dollar halted the advance. With both the Fed and BoE maintaining hawkish pauses, traders await Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for directional clarity.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3360.
| R1: 1.3500 | S1: 1.3360 |
| R2: 1.3540 | S2: 1.3300 |
| R3: 1.3600 | S3: 1.3240 |
Silver steadied around $59, retaining previous gains as investors monitored U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts regarding a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening and evaluated the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. While President Trump described his offer as Tehran's final chance, Iran denied direct negotiations despite acknowledging progress via Oman. Meanwhile, September Fed rate-hike expectations sit near 65%, with New York Fed President John Williams maintaining that policy remains well-positioned for inflation to moderate.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $59.50, while support is located around $58.00.
| R1: 59.50 | S1: 58.00 |
| R2: 60.90 | S2: 56.70 |
| R3: 61.50 | S3: 55.00 |
Global markets traded with a cautious risk-on tone as easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices improved investor sentiment.
Fed and Iran Talks Drive Markets (3–7 August)Global markets entered August with investors reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook while renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran triggered sharp moves in oil and precious metals. The dollar recovered to around 100.3 but remained under pressure after posting its worst weekly decline in three months. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell more than 4% after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran would resume, easing immediate concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and energy-driven inflation.
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