Global markets remained focused on shifting central bank expectations, U.S. fiscal concerns, and Middle East risks.
The euro held above 1.165 as higher energy costs and resilient German growth reinforced expectations for further ECB tightening, while sterling stayed near six-month highs amid elevated UK inflation. Gold and silver remained close to multi-month peaks, supported by Treasury bond buybacks and underlying demand. Meanwhile, the yen weakened beyond 159 despite growing expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate hike.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 12:30 | USD | GDP (QoQ) | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) | 0.4% | 0.3% |
The euro held near multi-month highs above $1.165 in late August as markets braced for further European Central Bank tightening. Escalating US-Iran tensions have driven up energy costs, with elevated oil prices, supply risks, and low gas reserves threatening persistent inflation. Money markets are fully pricing a September rate hike and over 40 basis points of tightening this year, further supported by upwardly revised German Q2 growth of 0.3%.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1700 while the support starts from 1.1650.
| R1: 1.1700 | S1: 1.1650 |
| R2: 1.1750 | S2: 1.1610 |
| R3: 1.1810 | S3: 1.1570 |
Gold eased below $4,650 per ounce on Wednesday while staying near three-month highs as investors await key US PCE inflation data. Market focus remains on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole address, though major policy shifts are not anticipated. Doubled US Treasury bond buybacks continue to support safe-haven demand, while lower oil prices and an 11% monthly increase in China's July net imports reinforce the metal's bullish backdrop.
First resistance is seen at $4700, with initial support near $4600.
| R1: 4700 | S1: 4600 |
| R2: 4775 | S2: 4560 |
| R3: 4890 | S3: 4490 |
The yen slipped past 159 per dollar as safe-haven demand lifted the dollar following US plans to isolate Iran financially. However, US debt crisis concerns and skepticism over Treasury buybacks capped dollar gains. Domestically, former BOJ member Seiji Adachi warned that holding rates steady risks driving inflation, projecting hikes next month and in January. Markets now price an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point September rate increase to 1.25%.
First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.20.
| R1: 159.50 | S1: 157.20 |
| R2: 160.70 | S2: 156.00 |
| R3: 161.50 | S3: 155.30 |
Sterling climbed past $1.36 to near six-month highs as expanded US Treasury bond buybacks weighed on the dollar. Investors are looking to Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address for monetary policy cues. Meanwhile, UK markets expect two Bank of England rate hikes by early 2027, supported by July inflation rising to 2.9%, strong core figures, expanding PMI activity, and a two-year high in consumer confidence under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3680, with support around 1.3590.
| R1: 1.3680 | S1: 1.3590 |
| R2: 1.3720 | S2: 1.3560 |
| R3: 1.3790 | S3: 1.3520 |
Silver hovered near two-month highs above $68 per ounce on Wednesday as markets awaited key US PCE inflation data. Investor focus remained on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole address, alongside ongoing impact from doubled US Treasury bond buybacks. Easing oil prices softened broader inflation concerns, while sustained industrial demand across solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure provided solid structural support.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $69.50, while support is located around $67.50.
| R1: 69.50 | S1: 67.50 |
| R2: 71.80 | S2: 66.20 |
| R3: 73.00 | S3: 65.00 |
Fed, BOJ Hikes Lift Dollar as Oil Falls (21 – 25 September)Global markets entered the week balancing tighter monetary policy against signs of easing Middle East energy risks. The Federal Reserve remains the main macro driver after raising rates to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaling that another increase remains possible this year. The Dollar Index advanced to 100.4, while Treasury yields remained elevated. The Bank of Japan also tightened policy, raising rates to 1.25%, although dissent within the board suggested that future increases could come at a slower pace.
Detail Falling Oil Prices Support Metals (09.21.2026)Easing oil prices offered some relief to financial markets as renewed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East reduced immediate inflation concerns.
BOJ Takes Rates to a 31-Year HighThe Bank of Japan raised its key short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% in September, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level since April 1995 and taking another step away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.
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