Global markets remained focused on U.S. fiscal concerns, shifting central bank expectations, and renewed Middle East tensions.
The euro and sterling held near multi-month highs as persistent concerns over Treasury debt buybacks limited the dollar’s recovery, despite some safe-haven demand linked to Iran. Gold remained close to three-month highs and silver stayed elevated as fiscal uncertainty supported debasement demand. Meanwhile, the yen weakened beyond 159 even as markets increased expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate hike.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | EUR | German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 14:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 90.3 | 90.8 | |
| 14:00 | USD | New Home Sales (Jul) | 620K | 628K |
EUR/USD trades near 1.16612, hovering close to multi-month highs despite modest dollar gains from Middle East safe-haven demand after new US sanctions on Iran. Persistent concerns over Treasury debt buybacks continue to keep the dollar near three-month lows. Meanwhile, solid Eurozone data led by German manufacturing supports the euro, with markets awaiting PCE inflation figures and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1700 while the support starts from 1.1650.
| R1: 1.1700 | S1: 1.1650 |
| R2: 1.1750 | S2: 1.1610 |
| R3: 1.1810 | S3: 1.1570 |
Gold eased slightly below $4,650 per ounce while remaining near its highest level in over three months. Prices were supported as expanded US Treasury bond buybacks revived debasement demand. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent expressed openness to further buyback increases while signaling broader fiscal plans. However, market doubts over long-term fiscal relief sparked renewed debt crisis and inflation concerns, alongside rising gold ETF inflows.
First resistance is seen at $4700, with initial support near $4600.
| R1: 4700 | S1: 4600 |
| R2: 4775 | S2: 4560 |
| R3: 4890 | S3: 4490 |
The Japanese yen fell past 159 per dollar, extending losses as safe-haven demand modestly lifted the dollar following new US plans to isolate Iran financially. However, persistent US debt crisis concerns capped dollar gains. Former Bank of Japan board member Adachi signaled likely rate hikes next month and in January, with markets pricing an 80% chance of a September increase to 1.25%.
First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.20.
| R1: 159.50 | S1: 157.20 |
| R2: 160.70 | S2: 156.00 |
| R3: 161.50 | S3: 155.30 |
GBP/USD trades near 1.3630, remaining close to multi-month highs as persistent dollar weakness offsets safe-haven demand sparked by Iran tensions. Elevated UK inflation in July has reinforced expectations for Bank of England rate hikes by year-end and April. Market participants now look to Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and PCE inflation data for direction.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3680, with support around 1.3590.
| R1: 1.3680 | S1: 1.3590 |
| R2: 1.3720 | S2: 1.3560 |
| R3: 1.3790 | S3: 1.3520 |
Silver dipped below $68 per ounce while remaining near its two-month high, following gold's momentum as US Treasury buyback expansions revived debasement demand. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent signaled openness to further buybacks alongside longer-term fiscal plans. However, market doubts over lasting debt relief sustained broader fiscal concerns, while strong industrial demand across green energy, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure provided additional underlying support.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $69.50, while support is located around $67.50.
| R1: 69.50 | S1: 67.20 |
| R2: 71.80 | S2: 66.20 |
| R3: 73.00 | S3: 65.00 |
Fed, BOJ Hikes Lift Dollar as Oil Falls (21 – 25 September)Global markets entered the week balancing tighter monetary policy against signs of easing Middle East energy risks. The Federal Reserve remains the main macro driver after raising rates to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaling that another increase remains possible this year. The Dollar Index advanced to 100.4, while Treasury yields remained elevated. The Bank of Japan also tightened policy, raising rates to 1.25%, although dissent within the board suggested that future increases could come at a slower pace.
Detail Falling Oil Prices Support Metals (09.21.2026)Easing oil prices offered some relief to financial markets as renewed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East reduced immediate inflation concerns.
BOJ Takes Rates to a 31-Year HighThe Bank of Japan raised its key short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% in September, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level since April 1995 and taking another step away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.
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