Global markets remained focused on U.S. fiscal concerns, shifting central bank expectations, and renewed Middle East tensions.
The euro and sterling held near multi-month highs as persistent concerns over Treasury debt buybacks limited the dollar’s recovery, despite some safe-haven demand linked to Iran. Gold remained close to three-month highs and silver stayed elevated as fiscal uncertainty supported debasement demand. Meanwhile, the yen weakened beyond 159 even as markets increased expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate hike.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | EUR | German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 14:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 90.3 | 90.8 | |
| 14:00 | USD | New Home Sales (Jul) | 620K | 628K |
EUR/USD trades near 1.16612, hovering close to multi-month highs despite modest dollar gains from Middle East safe-haven demand after new US sanctions on Iran. Persistent concerns over Treasury debt buybacks continue to keep the dollar near three-month lows. Meanwhile, solid Eurozone data led by German manufacturing supports the euro, with markets awaiting PCE inflation figures and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1700 while the support starts from 1.1650.
| R1: 1.1700 | S1: 1.1650 |
| R2: 1.1750 | S2: 1.1610 |
| R3: 1.1810 | S3: 1.1570 |
Gold eased slightly below $4,650 per ounce while remaining near its highest level in over three months. Prices were supported as expanded US Treasury bond buybacks revived debasement demand. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent expressed openness to further buyback increases while signaling broader fiscal plans. However, market doubts over long-term fiscal relief sparked renewed debt crisis and inflation concerns, alongside rising gold ETF inflows.
First resistance is seen at $4700, with initial support near $4600.
| R1: 4700 | S1: 4600 |
| R2: 4775 | S2: 4560 |
| R3: 4890 | S3: 4490 |
The Japanese yen fell past 159 per dollar, extending losses as safe-haven demand modestly lifted the dollar following new US plans to isolate Iran financially. However, persistent US debt crisis concerns capped dollar gains. Former Bank of Japan board member Adachi signaled likely rate hikes next month and in January, with markets pricing an 80% chance of a September increase to 1.25%.
First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.20.
| R1: 159.50 | S1: 157.20 |
| R2: 160.70 | S2: 156.00 |
| R3: 161.50 | S3: 155.30 |
GBP/USD trades near 1.3630, remaining close to multi-month highs as persistent dollar weakness offsets safe-haven demand sparked by Iran tensions. Elevated UK inflation in July has reinforced expectations for Bank of England rate hikes by year-end and April. Market participants now look to Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and PCE inflation data for direction.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3680, with support around 1.3590.
| R1: 1.3680 | S1: 1.3590 |
| R2: 1.3720 | S2: 1.3560 |
| R3: 1.3790 | S3: 1.3520 |
Silver dipped below $68 per ounce while remaining near its two-month high, following gold's momentum as US Treasury buyback expansions revived debasement demand. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent signaled openness to further buybacks alongside longer-term fiscal plans. However, market doubts over lasting debt relief sustained broader fiscal concerns, while strong industrial demand across green energy, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure provided additional underlying support.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $69.50, while support is located around $67.50.
| R1: 69.50 | S1: 67.20 |
| R2: 71.80 | S2: 66.20 |
| R3: 73.00 | S3: 65.00 |
Fed Inflation Concerns RemainThe latest Federal Reserve minutes show that inflation remains a central concern for policymakers, even as recent economic data has reduced the urgency for another rate increase. Some officials believe price pressures are becoming more widespread, while a smaller group directly supported further tightening.
Detail
Dollar Falls on Debt Concerns as Yields Rise (24 – 28 August)Global markets entered the week with the US dollar under continued pressure as concerns over federal debt and Treasury market management moved to the center of investor attention. The Dollar Index hovered near 98.8 following sharp losses in the previous week, while the US Treasury’s expanded bond buyback programme pushed longer-term yields and the dollar lower. The move supported gold, silver, and major currencies, while investors assessed its longer-term implications for US borrowing costs and the yield curve.
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