Energy markets cooled on Monday as Brent crude slipped toward $103 a barrel, ending a two-session rally. Declining oil prices and easing Treasury yields provided support to major currencies and precious metals as investors awaited upcoming US inflation data.
The euro recovered above 1.12 amid stabilizing French bond markets, while sterling climbed toward 1.324 as hawkish Bank of England comments reinforced expectations for further tightening. Gold extended its recovery toward $4,200, and silver held near $61 as lower energy costs eased inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the yen remained under pressure around 158.2, with wide US-Japan interest rate differentials and intervention risks keeping traders cautious. Renewed Middle East tensions added uncertainty to the outlook.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 12:50 | GBP | BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | - | - |
The euro rebounded above $1.12 after touching a 17-month low of $1.1161 earlier this week, aided by stabilizing French bonds, lower energy costs, and easing Treasury yields. Nevertheless, concerns regarding France's record debt load and broad US economic resilience leave the single currency on path for a fifth consecutive weekly drop. Softening oil prices, influenced by reduced geopolitical risks, led markets to pare back ECB rate hike expectations, now anticipating the deposit rate to move from 2.50% to 2.72% by December.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1190.
| R1: 1.1260 | S1: 1.1190 |
| R2: 1.1290 | S2: 1.1160 |
| R3: 1.1320 | S3: 1.1080 |
Gold rose above $4,200 per ounce on Monday, advancing for a third straight session as declining oil prices, aided by Trump's announced Russian diesel agreement, alleviated inflation concerns. Trump also claimed an immediate Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, though fresh Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia's primary airport prompted potential US retaliatory action in Yemen. Markets now await upcoming US inflation data for guidance on future Federal Reserve policy.
First resistance is seen at $4200, with initial support near $4170.
| R1: 4200 | S1: 4170 |
| R2: 4225 | S2: 4100 |
| R3: 4240 | S3: 4050 |
The yen traded around 158.2 per dollar on Monday during thin holiday session conditions across Japan and the US. Caution prevailed as the currency approached 160, a key threshold that previously prompted official market intervention. Wide US-Japan interest rate differentials and substantial Japanese debt kept pressure on the yen, though investors continue pricing potential Bank of Japan rate hikes by December or January.
First resistance is seen at 158.60, with initial support near 157.50.
| R1: 158.60 | S1: 157.50 |
| R2: 160.10 | S2: 155.40 |
| R3: 162.50 | S3: 152.60 |
Sterling rebounded from three-month lows toward $1.324, supported by declining crude oil prices and stabilizing global bond markets. Sentiment was further supported by firm comments from Bank of England officials: Huw Pill prioritized price stability, Megan Greene highlighted persistent wage growth risks through 2027, and Governor Andrew Bailey stressed returning inflation to target. Markets now price a November rate hike, positioning the BoE as the sole major central bank still actively tightening.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3140.
| R1: 1.3340 | S1: 1.3140 |
| R2: 1.3350 | S2: 1.3100 |
| R3: 1.3400 | S3: 1.3050 |
Silver traded slightly below $61 per ounce on Monday, building on recent gains as falling crude oil prices moderated global inflation concerns. Sentiment softened following news that Russia will supply diesel, alongside claims of a Moscow-Kyiv energy ceasefire. However, escalating Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia's principal airport prompted the US to consider joint military intervention. Investors now look to upcoming US inflation data for Federal Reserve monetary policy cues.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.50, while support is located around $60.00.
| R1: 62.50 | S1: 60.00 |
| R2: 64.20 | S2: 59.60 |
| R3: 65.30 | S3: 57.50 |
Dollar Keeps Firm Ahead of US Inflation (12 – 16 October)The dollar held firm heading into the new week as investors awaited key US inflation figures to guide Federal Reserve policy. The Dollar Index held above 102 after four consecutive weekly gains, while the euro and yen remained under pressure from wide interest rate differentials and persistent fiscal concerns. September’s consumer and producer inflation reports will be closely watched as markets assess whether the Fed has room to pause its tightening cycle.
Detail Falling Yields Lift Metals as Currencies Stabilize (10.09.2026)Easing oil prices and retreating Treasury yields (around 5.23% ) provided some relief to financial markets as improving US-Iran diplomatic prospects reduced immediate inflation concerns.
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