Fed Decision and Tech Earnings Drive Markets (10.28.2026)

The Fed takes center stage today, with markets pricing a 92.8% chance of holding rates at 3.75–4.00%. Investors will focus on Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance as persistent inflation and a cooling labor market complicate policy. 

Any hint of a December hike could lift Treasury yields and pressure tech stocks. Gold traded below $4,050 and silver slipped beneath $54 as Middle East tensions and volatile oil prices sustained inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the euro held near 1.1125 ahead of the ECB meeting, while sterling remained under pressure below 1.3350 as investors awaited the UK Autumn Budget. The yen weakened toward 158 per dollar as renewed enthusiasm for technology stocks reduced safe-haven demand, despite expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening.

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1125

EUR/USD held steady around 1.1125 in early Asian trading on Wednesday, remaining capped below 1.1150 as traders prepared for central bank policy updates. The Federal Reserve is broadly expected to maintain interest rates at its October meeting later today, while the European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Thursday.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1150 while the support starts from 1.1100.

Gold Trades Below $4,050

Gold traded below $4,050 per ounce on Wednesday as investors cautiously awaited the Federal Reserve policy outcome while assessing ongoing Middle East geopolitical developments. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady today, market participants are watching for signals regarding a potential December rate increase. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly paused policy tightening, adopting a cautious stance. Crude oil prices fluctuated amid a tight Israeli election and potential US military actions involving Iran. Regional volatility continues to support energy costs and inflation fears, dampening non-yielding gold demand.

First resistance is seen at $4100, with initial support near $4025.

Yen Weakens Toward 158 Level

The Japanese yen slipped toward 158 per dollar on Wednesday, relinquishing recent safe-haven gains as renewed optimism around artificial intelligence raised tech shares. Strong third-quarter results and expanded shareholder returns from SK Hynix underpinned broader tech sector confidence. Market participants are positioning for this week's Bank of Japan policy announcement, where rates are expected to hold steady, though officials may signal a December increase given sticky price pressures. September services inflation reached 3.7%, a multi-month high driven by labor, transport, and fuel expenses. Additional global central bank decisions will also guide currency direction.

First resistance is seen at 158.30, with initial support near 157.10.

GBP/USD Soft Below 1.3350

GBP/USD remains under pressure below 1.3350 during Asian trading, though holding above yesterday's low. Technical resistance is situated at 1.3344 and the 100-day moving average near 1.3389, while support rests at 1.3267 and 1.3141. Market focus centres on two key events tomorrow: UK Chancellor Healey presenting her first Autumn Budget, watched closely for its impact on bond yields, and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Sterling derives support from high Bank of England rate hike expectations, while December Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks support the US dollar.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3360, with support around 1.3250.

Silver Trades Below $54 Mark

Silver traded between $53 and $54 per ounce on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision and digested early Israeli election developments. While the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, markets are searching for indications regarding a possible December rate increase. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly paused policy tightening. Crude oil volatility alongside potential US military actions involving Iran continue to feed broader inflation fears, keeping non-yielding precious metals under pressure.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $54.80, while support is located around $53.00.