Expectations for further monetary tightening remained a major market driver as stalled US-Iran negotiations kept energy prices elevated and Treasury yields high.
Gold fell below $4,180 and silver dropped under $62, with both metals approaching seven-week lows as higher yields strengthened the dollar. The yen weakened toward 158 despite intervention concerns, while the euro remained near 1.1390. Sterling showed some resilience around 1.325 as hawkish Bank of England signals raised expectations for a November rate hike.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 13:30 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks |
On September 28, 2026, the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1391, declining 0.01% from the previous session. The euro has dropped 1.95% against the US dollar over the past month and remains down 2.90% over the last 12 months.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1400 while the support starts from 1.1350.
| R1: 1.1400 | S1: 1.1350 |
| R2: 1.1450 | S2: 1.1320 |
| R3: 1.1500 | S3: 1.1300 |
Gold fell under $4,180 per ounce on Monday to a seven-week low as stalled US-Iran talks kept oil prices elevated, strengthening expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal on the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials refused to ease their terms. Meanwhile, Fed officials highlighted solid economic growth and labor market strength as justification for continued tightening, pushing long-term Treasury yields higher. Investors now await key US inflation and employment reports for monetary policy direction.
First resistance is seen at $4200, with initial support near $4150.
| R1: 4200 | S1: 4150 |
| R2: 4240 | S2: 4080 |
| R3: 4320 | S3: 4020 |
The Japanese yen slipped toward 158 per dollar on Monday, retreating from Friday's 1% gain as a firmer US dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and rising oil prices weighed on the currency. Friday's rebound followed comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding ongoing US-Japan coordination on currency stability following July's joint intervention. However, broad dollar demand and expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening continue to pressure the yen, even as market participants anticipate a potential Bank of Japan rate hike next month.
First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.70.
| R1: 159.50 | S1: 157.70 |
| R2: 161.10 | S2: 156.20 |
| R3: 165.50 | S3: 155.00 |
Sterling ticked slightly higher to $1.325 but remained near three-month lows as market participants evaluated hawkish rhetoric from Bank of England officials. Governor Andrew Bailey and monetary policy members warned that surging energy prices could force additional interest rate hikes to combat persistent inflation. These developments create fiscal headwinds for Prime Minister Burnham ahead of the October 28 budget. Financial markets now price an 80% probability of a November rate increase, with four quarter-point hikes expected over the next year.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3270, with support around 1.3170.
| R1: 1.3270 | S1: 1.3170 |
| R2: 1.3300 | S2: 1.3100 |
| R3: 1.3350 | S3: 1.3000 |
Silver fell below $62 an ounce on Monday, approaching a seven-week low as stalled US-Iran negotiations sustained high oil prices and reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials refused to ease their stance. Meanwhile, Fed officials pointed to strong economic growth and a strong labor market as justification for potential further tightening, driving long-term Treasury yields higher.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.10, while support is located around $61,00.
| R1: 62.10 | S1: 61.00 |
| R2: 63.00 | S2: 60.80 |
| R3: 64.50 | S3: 60.10 |
Fed Hike Bets and Hormuz Tensions Lift Markets (28 September – 2 October)The week started with renewed pressure from rising oil prices and expectations for further monetary tightening. The Dollar Index climbed toward 101.1, near a two-month high, as several Federal Reserve officials cited resilient economic growth, a strong labor market, and persistent inflation risks as reasons to hike rates further. Markets now price in roughly a 66% chance of another Fed hike in October, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007.
Detail Rising Treasury Yields Pressure Markets (09.25.2026)Rising Treasury yields and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening kept the dollar near two-month highs at the end of the week.
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