Fed Rate Hike Expectations Pressure Metals (11.10.2026)

Rising expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike weighed on precious metals as investors awaited key US inflation and employment data. 

Gold retreated toward $4,120, while silver slipped near $53, with markets pricing an 84% probability of further Fed tightening. Meanwhile, the euro eased to 1.1228 as its recent recovery lost momentum, while sterling advanced toward 1.3448, supported by the Bank of England's latest rate increase. The Japanese yen weakened toward 158 per dollar despite hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. Attention now turns to upcoming US economic releases for further clues on the Fed's policy direction.

EUR/USD Retracts to 1.1228

EUR/USD dropped to about 1.1228 on Tuesday, giving back ground after its multi-day rebound stalled below recent highs. Rising Eurozone inflation had lifted the euro, while the dollar had softened following the Democratic midterm sweep. Trading turned choppy as investors positioned ahead of today’s key US nonfarm payrolls report, with sellers trying to take back control.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1245 while the support starts from 1.1190.

Gold Slips to $4,120 Level

Gold slipped toward $4,120 per ounce on Tuesday, scaling back part of the previous session's advance as market participants awaited a crucial US inflation release to gauge Federal Reserve policy path expectations. Expectations for a December Fed rate increase have risen to 84%, up from 74% last week, driven by persistent inflationary pressures. Elevated interest rates heighten the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion. Previously, gold gained nearly 2% as falling oil prices spurred US-Iran peace hopes.

First resistance is seen at $4160, with initial support near $4070.

Yen Weakens Back Toward 158

The Japanese yen weakened to around 158 per dollar on Tuesday, surrendering a portion of the previous session's advance as hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan failed to provide sustained market momentum. According to the BOJ's latest Summary of Opinions, board members generally agreed that interest rate increases should continue given underlying inflation matches their 2% target. Additionally, some members advocated accelerating monetary tightening toward neutral levels, citing increased corporate resilience to higher borrowing costs.

First resistance is seen at 158.80, with initial support near 158.00.

GBP/USD Nears 1.3448 Ahead of US CPI

GBP/USD traded slightly higher around 1.3448 during Tuesday's Asian session. Sterling maintains support from the Bank of England's rate hike last week, which marked its first interest rate increase in over three years. The pair remains situated within the middle of its year-and-a-half trading range. Attention now turns to the upcoming US October inflation report, where headline annual CPI is projected to rise to 3.9%. With a December Fed rate hike largely priced in, an upside inflation surprise could support the dollar, whereas a cooler reading may unlock further gains for the pound.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3480, with support around 1.3400.

Silver Softens Toward $53 Level

Silver slipped toward $53 per ounce on Tuesday, relinquishing a portion of prior gains as market participants awaited key US inflation data to gauge Federal Reserve policy expectations. Expectations for a December Fed rate increase have risen to 84%, up from 74% last week, driven by persistent inflationary pressures. Higher interest rates elevate the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, tempering appetite for precious metals.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.80, while support is located around $52.20.