Geopolitics and Trade Drive Volatility (02.24.2026)

Global markets are navigating a renewed wave of uncertainty as shifting U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions reshape risk sentiment. The Trump administration’s move to reintroduce a global tariff framework, starting at 10% with the option to raise it to 15%, has unsettled investors and prompted swift responses from major economies. 

The EU paused ratification of its U.S. trade agreement, while India delayed negotiations, underlining the fragile state of global trade relations. Against this backdrop, currency markets showed mixed moves, with the euro and pound finding support from regional data, the yen retreating as the dollar stabilized, and precious metals pulling back after recent rallies as traders reassessed risk, profit-taking, and upcoming geopolitical developments.

Euro Climbs Above $1.18

The euro advanced beyond $1.18, recovering from recent lows after the European Parliament paused ratification of the US-EU trade agreement signed last July. This suspension followed President Trump’s plan to increase global import tariffs to 15%, creating fresh trade uncertainty. However, the currency found support from stronger German business confidence, which reached a six-month high. Investors now look toward upcoming Eurozone inflation data to gauge the European Central Bank's next policy moves.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1840, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1750.

Yen Retreats Toward 155

The Japanese yen slipped back toward 155 per dollar, erasing earlier gains as the US Dollar recovered. Market sentiment was influenced by reports that U.S. officials might coordinate interventions to stabilize the currency, especially given the political uncertainty surrounding Japan's upcoming general election.

Technically, resistance stands near 156.70, while support is firm at 153.50.

Gold Dips Below $5,190

Gold slipped below $5,190 on Tuesday, snapping a four-day rally as investors reassessed shifting trade policies and geopolitical risks. The Trump administration is working to reinstate its global tariff strategy after a Supreme Court setback, introducing a new 10% levy effective today with potential increases to 15%. In response, the EU suspended its trade pact ratification and India postponed negotiations. Markets also remain focused on Thursday's U.S.-Iran nuclear talks; while President Trump favors diplomacy, he warned of consequences if an agreement is not reached.

Gold sees support near $5105, while resistance is around $5200.

Pound Reclaims $1.35 on Solid UK Data

Sterling climbed back to $1.35 as the dollar softened following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump’s original tariff plan. Despite the White House shifting to a new 15% global levy, the pound found support from strong domestic data, including a record £30.4 billion monthly budget surplus and the fastest private-sector expansion in nearly two years.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3360, with resistance around 1.3540.

Silver Declines on Profit-Taking and Trade Concerns

Silver slid over 2% to under $86 per ounce on Tuesday, snapping a four-day rally as investors took profits amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Market volatility increased after FedEx sued for reimbursement following the Supreme Court's reversal of President Trump’s emergency tariffs. While silver previously climbed on Trump’s threat to raise global levies to 15%, concerns persist that shifting U.S. policies could destabilize existing trade pacts. Investors also remain focused on upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations, where Trump has emphasized a preference for diplomacy despite warning of consequences if talks fail.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $88.50 while support is located around $85.80.