Geopolitics Reassert Control (04.24.2026)

Markets moved into a risk-off phase as escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US–Iran diplomacy supported the US dollar. 

The euro fell below 1.17, pressured by weak Eurozone data and rising energy costs, while gold and silver extended losses amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. The Japanese yen weakened toward 160 despite intervention warnings, reflecting ongoing pressure from higher oil prices, and sterling stabilized near $1.35 with limited upside. Overall, rising inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on risk assets and support the dollar.

Euro Hits Two-Week Low

The euro slipped below $1.17 as the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and collapsed US–Iran diplomacy fueled risk aversion. This geopolitical friction, combined with grim economic data, has severely dampened sentiment. April reports indicate the Eurozone’s private sector is contracting at its sharpest rate since late 2024. Furthermore, Germany has lowered its 2026 growth outlook, identifying surging energy costs as a primary obstacle. These factors continue to drive investors toward the dollar, capping the euro's recovery.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1720, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1640.

Gold Eyes Weekly Slump

Gold remained under $4,700 per ounce this Friday, tracking toward a 3% weekly loss. Spiraling US–Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation fears and expectations for tighter monetary policy. Despite the continued ceasefire extensions, the prospect of rising interest rates has dampened the appeal of non-yielding assets. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty remains high, yet the shift toward hawkish central bank sentiment continues to cap gold’s upside.

First resistance is seen at $4730, with initial support near $4625.

Yen Nears 160 Threshold

The Japanese yen weakened toward 160 per dollar on Friday, capping a 1% weekly decline despite intensified intervention warnings from Tokyo. Finance Minister Katayama signaled that authorities have a "free hand" to counter speculative moves. Although March inflation data edged up to 1.8% due to the Iran-related energy shock, core prices remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. This suggests a likely policy hold next week, leaving the yen vulnerable to surging oil import costs and persistent Middle East instability.

Initial resistance stands at 160.00, while the first support is located at 159.30.

Sterling Finds Support

The British pound stabilized near $1.35, recovering from recent lows while remaining near its weakest level since early April. Although strong PMI data suggested a bounce in business activity due to defensive stockpiling, global friction remains a headwind. Stalled diplomacy and volatility in the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive sentiment despite the current ceasefire. Furthermore, local political noise surrounding an upcoming parliamentary hearing for senior Labour officials has introduced fresh uncertainty for investors tracking the currency.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3410.

Silver Nears $75

Silver dropped toward $75 per ounce on Friday, marking a 7% weekly decline as escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz drove energy costs and inflation expectations higher. Stalled diplomacy and ongoing naval blockades have intensified geopolitical risks. Despite extended ceasefires, the market anticipates tighter monetary policy to combat rising prices. This shift toward higher interest rates has significantly curbed the appeal of non-yielding metals like silver.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $76.00 while support is located around $73.50.