US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, with a 25 bps rate cut widely expected. On Tuesday, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted modest losses, weighed down by tech names including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft. Optimism over US-China trade talks and a new TikTok framework supported sentiment, lifting Oracle shares.
The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.03%, close to five-month lows, as markets priced in a cut and about 67 bps of easing for the year. The dollar index held near 96.7, at a two and a half month low, as the euro hit a four-year high.
Asian markets were mixed: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose over 1%, China’s CSI 300 gained 0.4%, Japan’s Nikkei edged 0.2% higher, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 1%. Investors looked to the Fed’s updated projections and dot plot for guidance.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | GBP | CPI (YoY) (Aug) | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 09:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) (Aug) | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| 13:45 | CAD | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.75% |
| 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 3.939M | |
| 18:00 | USD | FOMC Economics Projections | 4.876% | |
| 18:00 | USD | FOMC Statement | ||
| 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.50% |
| 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
The euro climbed above $1.18, its highest since September 2021, supported by strong Eurozone sentiment and broad dollar weakness ahead of expected Fed cuts. Markets price at least a 25 bps reduction as the Fed balances weak labor data with inflation. The ECB held rates steady, with officials warning of risks from tariffs, services inflation, food prices, and fiscal pressures.
Resistance is at 1.1910, with key support at 1.1785.
| R1: 1.1910 | S1: 1.1785 |
| R2: 1.1930 | S2: 1.1645 |
| R3: 1.1200 | S3: 1.1580 |
The yen slipped to about 146.6 per dollar on Wednesday after weaker trade data raised concerns for Japan’s export-driven economy. August exports fell 0.1% and imports dropped 5.2%, while shipments to the U.S. plunged 13.8%. The BOJ is expected to keep rates at 0.5%. Despite the decline, the yen stayed near two-month highs as the dollar weakened ahead of the Fed’s likely 25 bps rate cut, with about 67 bps of easing priced in for 2025.
Resistance is at 148.50, while support holds at 146.00.
| R1: 148.50 | S1: 146.00 |
| R2: 150.90 | S2: 144.20 |
| R3: 154.50 | S3: 142.30 |
Gold eased to about $3,680 on Wednesday after briefly hitting a record $3,700, with profit-taking seen as the driver. The overall uptrend holds as markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps, with three cuts priced in for 2025. August retail sales rose 0.6%, showing resilience, while investors await the Fed’s dot plot and Powell’s guidance. Year-to-date, gold is up 41%, supported by central bank buying, safe-haven demand, and dollar weakness.
Gold is currently facing resistance around $3,700, with strong support near $3,650.
| R1: 3700 | S1: 3650 |
| R2: 3730 | S2: 3625 |
| R3: 3760 | S3: 3590 |
The British pound climbed above $1.363, its highest since early July, ahead of a busy week of central bank decisions and UK data. The BoE is expected to hold rates at 4% while slowing its £100 billion bond unwind. August inflation is forecast at 3.8% YoY, with steady unemployment and moderate wage growth keeping near-term rate cuts unlikely. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25 bps cut, with markets pricing in more easing through 2025.
The first resistance is seen at 1.3680, with nearby support beginning at 1.3570.
| R1: 1.3680 | S1: 1.3570 |
| R2: 1.3730 | S2: 1.3500 |
| R3: 1.3780 | S3: 1.3450 |
Silver slipped over 1% to around $42 per ounce on Wednesday, retreating from 14-year highs as investors took profits ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, with about 67 bps of easing priced in this year, driven by a weaker labor market despite inflation above 2%. Focus is on the Fed’s dot plot, while strong industrial demand from solar, EVs, and electronics alongside supply constraints, continues to support silver.
The first resistance holds at $43.00 and the support is at $41.50.
| R1: 43.00 | S1: 41.50 |
| R2: 43.70 | S2: 40.80 |
| R3: 44.10 | S3: 39.50 |
China’s Uneven Economic ResilienceChina’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.
Detail Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
Markets Balance Between Relief and RiskGlobal markets have begun pricing in a more moderate geopolitical outlook, yet the underlying situation remains unsettled. Diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran have shown a sense of guarded relief following weeks of heightened anxiety regarding energy flows and critical shipping lanes. Interestingly, the failure of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to ignite a total energy crisis has challenged traditional market expectations.
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