Gold Climbs, Yen Recovers on Soft US Signals (12.03.2025)

Rate-cut expectations overtook Wednesday trading.

EUR/USD hovered near 1.1635 as firm Eurozone inflation and steady ECB signals kept the euro supported. GBP/USD held around 1.3230 with markets looking ahead to December policy decisions from both the Fed and the BoE.

Gold moved toward $4,220 with nearly a 90% probability priced in for a Fed cut next week, while silver extended its powerful 2025 rally beyond $58.70. The yen strengthened toward 155.5, recovering earlier losses as US data rose expectations of deeper Fed easing, even as Japan continued to debate a possible BOJ hike this month.

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.16

EUR/USD edged up to 1.1642 late Wednesday in Asian trading, gaining about 0.12% as the pair continued to draw support from expectations of a December Fed cut and firm inflation readings across the euro area. The euro is now trading near 1.1635 after rebounding from intraday lows around 1.1590. ECB minutes offered no new signals, with policymakers maintaining that the current stance is appropriate and that rate reductions are unlikely before 2026.

Support sits at 1.1580, while resistance is positioned at 1.1660.

Yen Recovers, Fed Cut Bets Strengthen

The Japanese yen moved toward 155.5 per dollar, regaining part of Tuesday’s pullback as the softer US dollar reflected stronger expectations of deeper Fed easing. Attention in Japan remained on the possibility of a BoJ rate hike this month after recent hawkish remarks, even though Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government is widely viewed as favouring a more accommodative approach.

Resistance stands at 157.95, while support remains firm at 154.20.

Gold Nears Six-Week High

Gold advanced toward $4,220 per ounce, moving closer to last week’s six-week peak as expectations for further Fed easing continued to shape sentiment. Recent US indicators pointed to mild cooling in activity, reinforcing confidence in a possible policy shift at next week’s meeting, with markets assigning nearly a 90% probability to a cut. Speculation that Kevin Hassett could be selected as the next Fed chair added to the overall dovish tone.

Support is near $4,190, while resistance sits around $4,275.

GBP/USD Steadies Around 1.3230

GBP/USD hovered around 1.3230 as markets looked for clearer signals from both the Fed and the Bank of England ahead of December’s policy decisions. The BoE is widely expected to deliver another rate reduction, with UK conditions showing little improvement since the last meeting, where four members already voted for a quarter-point cut in a narrow 5-4 split.

Support is near 1.3160, while resistance is located at 1.3270.

Silver Jumps Above $58.70

Silver climbed more than 0.50% to $58.70 per ounce, extending a strong six-session rally that has lifted prices more than 100% in 2025 after doubling from last year’s 52-week low near $28.30. Markets now assign an 88% probability to a 25-bps rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting.

Resistance is near $59.10, while support stands at $56.90.