Elevated Treasury yields and persistent expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continued to shape market sentiment.
Gold extended its decline below $4,150 and silver stabilized near $60.80 after steep losses, with high energy prices keeping inflation concerns elevated. EUR/USD remained below 1.1400, while sterling attempted a modest recovery near 1.325 amid hawkish Bank of England signals. The yen strengthened toward 156.90 as expectations for another Bank of Japan rate hike provided some support against the dollar.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 11:00 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ||
| 13:00 | USD | S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul) | 0.4% | |
| 13:00 | USD | S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul) | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 14:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) | 90.1 | 89.4 |
| 14:00 | USD | JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) | 7.230M | 7.271M |
| 15:00 | GBP | BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | ||
| 15:00 | USD | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | ||
| 16:40 | USD | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks | ||
| 18:00 | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | ||
| 18:00 | EUR | ECB's Lane Speaks | ||
| 19:00 | USD | Fed Waller Speaks | ||
| 20:30 | USD | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.786M |
EUR/USD slipped below 1.1400 during early Asian trading on Monday, reaching a late-July low of 1.1358. Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary has raised expectations for an October rate increase above 65%, while Middle East tensions continue to increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Despite recent European Central Bank tightening, the euro remains under pressure. Technical indicators show oversold conditions, with traders looking to upcoming German economic data for further direction.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1400 while the support starts from 1.1350.
| R1: 1.1400 | S1: 1.1350 |
| R2: 1.1450 | S2: 1.1320 |
| R3: 1.1500 | S3: 1.1300 |
Gold extended its decline on Monday, dropping under 4.150 per ounce and marking its lowest level since early August following a steep 4% loss in the prior session. The metal remains pinned below its 100-day moving average as multi-year high US Treasury yields and elevated oil prices support inflation expectations, weighing heavily on non-yielding bullion. Market participants now look to upcoming US inflation and labor market data for potential relief.
First resistance is seen at $4200, with initial support near $4080.
| R1: 4200 | S1: 4080 |
| R2: 4240 | S2: 4050 |
| R3: 4320 | S3: 4020 |
USD/JPY extended its pullback on Tuesday, easing to around 156.90 as the pair consolidates within a symmetrical triangle. Prices remain below both the 9- and 50-day moving averages, keeping the short-term bias tilted downward. While hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric continues to support the US dollar, comments from a former Bank of Japan official suggesting a potential back-to-back rate hike in late October are providing fresh underlying support for the yen.
First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.00.
| R1: 159.50 | S1: 157.00 |
| R2: 161.10 | S2: 156.20 |
| R3: 165.50 | S3: 155.00 |
GBP/USD edged up to around $1.3251 on Tuesday, recovering slightly after an extended slide left its 14-day RSI oversold near 30. Bank of England officials delivered hawkish signals, with Deputy Governor Ramsden and Governor Bailey pointing to persistent inflation and energy costs as reasons further rate hikes remain possible. However, sluggish private-sector growth and weak labor demand continue to cap gains against a resilient US dollar, leaving traders focused on upcoming US inflation and labor data.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3270, with support around 1.3170.
| R1: 1.3270 | S1: 1.3170 |
| R2: 1.3300 | S2: 1.3100 |
| R3: 1.3350 | S3: 1.3000 |
Silver stabilized around $60.8 per ounce on Tuesday following a nearly 6% slide in the prior session. Oil prices climbed as Iranian officials expressed doubt over securing a deal before the US midterm elections after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal. Unyielding energy costs continue to fuel inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields to multi-year highs and intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain aggressive monetary tightening.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $61.00, while support is located around $60,10.
| R1: 61.00 | S1: 60.10 |
| R2: 62.10 | S2: 59.50 |
| R3: 63.00 | S3: 58.90 |
A firm US dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to shape trading as September drew to a close.
Detail
Fed Hike Bets and Hormuz Tensions Lift Markets (28 September – 2 October)The week started with renewed pressure from rising oil prices and expectations for further monetary tightening. The Dollar Index climbed toward 101.1, near a two-month high, as several Federal Reserve officials cited resilient economic growth, a strong labor market, and persistent inflation risks as reasons to hike rates further. Markets now price in roughly a 66% chance of another Fed hike in October, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007.
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