U.S. stocks hit record highs with the Dow topping 46,000, while futures held flat as traders weighed hotter August CPI at 2.9% and rising jobless claims at 263,000, the highest since 2021. The data strengthened expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Treasury yields stayed near five-month lows around 4.03%.
In Japan, 10-year bond yields hovered near 1.59% as markets assessed the BoJ outlook amid Ishiba’s resignation and new U.S. tariff risks. A joint U.S.-Japan statement reaffirmed market-driven exchange rates.
Gold is on track for a fourth weekly gain, supported by safe-haven demand, Fed easing bets, and trade tensions.
The ECB kept rates steady, forecasting Eurozone inflation to ease toward 2% by 2027 and growth to slow in 2026 before a modest rebound. President Lagarde emphasized a cautious, data-driven stance.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 06:00 | GBP | U.K GDP (MoM) (Jul) | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 06:00 | GBP | Trade Balance (Jul) | -21.60B | -22.16B |
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) | 4.8% | |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) | 3.5% |
The EUR/USD pair slipped to 1.1725 in Friday’s Asian session, pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar, though losses may be limited with markets expecting a Fed rate cut next week. Focus now shifts to Germany’s August HICP and U.S. consumer sentiment data. On Thursday, the ECB kept rates at 2.0%, signaling confidence in growth and inflation. The move lowered expectations for further easing, with markets now pricing only a 40% chance of another cut by spring.
Resistance is at 1.1750, with key support at 1.1660.
| R1: 1.1750 | S1: 1.1660 |
| R2: 1.1775 | S2: 1.1620 |
| R3: 1.1780 | S3: 1.1580 |
The yen weakened to about 147.4 per dollar on Friday, giving back earlier gains after a US–Japan joint statement stressed that exchange rates should be market-driven and volatility limited. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato welcomed the statement amid new US tariffs but noted no talks on specific currency levels.
Domestically, markets assessed the Bank of Japan’s stance against mixed data and political uncertainty following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation and party divisions. Meanwhile, US inflation data met forecasts, reinforcing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
For USD/JPY, the nearest resistance is at 148.50, while the immediate support is at 146.70.
| R1: 148.50 | S1: 146.70 |
| R2: 150.90 | S2: 145.80 |
| R3: 154.50 | S3: 144.00 |
Gold nears $3,640 on Friday, marking a fourth weekly gain, driven by Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. U.S. inflation matched forecasts after a PPI drop, while jobless claims hit a four-year high, highlighting labor weakness. Markets price in a 25 bps cut, with speculation of 50. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariff pressure on India and China, Middle East conflicts, and Russian drone strikes, added support.
Gold is currently facing resistance around $3,675, with strong support near $3,615.
| R1: 3675 | S1: 3615 |
| R2: 3700 | S2: 3560 |
| R3: 3730 | S3: 3500 |
The British pound rose above $1.355 on Friday, up 0.33%, supported by broad U.S. dollar weakness as markets priced in more Fed rate cuts this year. Softer U.S. producer prices added pressure on the dollar, while UK fiscal comments had little effect. Traders now await August CPI, with results set to guide GBP/USD direction.
The first resistance is seen at 1.3600, with nearby support beginning at 1.3480.
| R1: 1.3600 | S1: 1.3480 |
| R2: 1.3680 | S2: 1.3350 |
| R3: 1.3770 | S3: 1.3300 |
Silver climbed 1% toward $42 per ounce on Friday, its highest in 14 years, supported by Fed rate cut bets. August U.S. CPI rose 0.4%, while producer prices fell and jobless claims hit a three-year high, signaling labor weakness. Safe-haven flows and strong industrial demand from solar, EVs, and electronics added support.
The first resistance at $42.30 and support at $41.00.
| R1: 42.30 | S1: 41.00 |
| R2: 43.20 | S2: 39.60 |
| R3: 44.40 | S3: 38.20 |
China’s Uneven Economic ResilienceChina’s economy began the year with a stronger performance than anticipated, primarily fueled by a strong export sector that helped mitigate stagnant domestic consumption. While headline growth suggests a degree of stability, the recovery's internal structure is notably unbalanced. Also, intensifying geopolitical tensions, specifically the energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, threaten to dampen the global outlook and undermine China’s economic momentum.
Detail Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)Markets remained supported as optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement kept risk sentiment elevated.
Markets Balance Between Relief and RiskGlobal markets have begun pricing in a more moderate geopolitical outlook, yet the underlying situation remains unsettled. Diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran have shown a sense of guarded relief following weeks of heightened anxiety regarding energy flows and critical shipping lanes. Interestingly, the failure of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to ignite a total energy crisis has challenged traditional market expectations.
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