Inflation Data Keeps Markets on Edge (02.27.2026)

Markets traded cautiously ahead of key inflation data and amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty. 

The euro held below $1.18 as investors awaited fresh inflation signals to assess the ECB’s policy outlook, while the yen rebounded modestly but remained pressured by policy uncertainty in Japan. Gold extended its advance toward a fourth weekly gain, supported by tariff concerns and stalled U.S.-Iran talks, while silver climbed toward $90 on renewed safe-haven demand. Sterling softened near $1.35 as political developments added another layer of uncertainty for the pound.

Euro Stays Under $1.18

The euro is trading just below $1.18 as investors await Friday's inflation data. Markets are looking for clues on how the currency's recent strength might impact price dynamics and the ECB's path forward. Currently, there is only a 30% probability of a rate cut by December, as officials remain cautious with wage growth moderating and inflation largely contained.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1840, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1750.

Yen Rebounds Toward 155.9

The Japanese yen rose to approximately 155.9 per dollar on Friday, yet remains on track for a second consecutive weekly loss. While the government nominated two reflation-leaning academics to the BOJ board, policy uncertainty persists. Reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reservations about additional rate hikes during a meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda continue to weigh on the currency's recovery.

Technically, resistance stands near 156.70, while support is firm at 153.50.

Gold Eyes Fourth Weekly Gain

Gold climbed toward $5,190 per ounce on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive weekly advance. Investors are navigating a complex backdrop of U.S. trade shifts and geopolitical friction. While the new 10% global tariff is now in effect, the potential for a 15% hike and stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva continue to drive safe-haven demand.

Gold sees support near $5105, while resistance is around $5200.

Sterling Softens Near $1.35

The British pound eased to $1.35 as voting began in a high-stakes by-election. This contest in the Gorton and Denton constituency, triggered by Andrew Gwynne’s resignation, is being closely monitored for its potential political impact on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government and broader market sentiment.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3360, with resistance around 1.3540.

Silver Eyes Second Weekly Gain

Silver surged nearly 2% toward $90 per ounce on Friday, on track for its second consecutive weekly advance. Heightened geopolitical risks and U.S. trade policy shifts continue to fuel safe-haven demand, as investors navigate the fallout from the Supreme Court's recent ruling against broad reciprocal tariffs.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $90.50 while support is located around $87.80.