Markets Await Warsh for Rate Clues (08.28.2026)

Global markets traded cautiously ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech as investors assessed persistent U.S. inflation and shifting interest rate expectations. 

The dollar index hovered near 99.1 Friday, waiting for policy cues, on track for weekly gains after strong inflation data. The euro stalled near 1.1650 and sterling slipped below 1.36 as the dollar remained supported, while gold and silver retreated from recent highs. Meanwhile, the yen stayed weak near 159.4 despite rising expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate hike. Japan's jobless rate dropped to 2.4% in July, beating expectations of 2.5% and marking the lowest level since July 2025.

Euro Stalls Near 1.1650

EUR/USD held steady near 1.1650 as sticky US PCE inflation supported the dollar, capping upside momentum. Meanwhile, persistent energy supply risks and ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the broader Eurozone economic outlook, keeping gains strictly limited.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1680 while the support starts from 1.1610.

Gold Dips Below $4,600 Ahead of Warsh's Speech

Gold slipped below $4,600 per ounce on Friday, heading for a weekly loss as traders awaited Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for interest rate cues. Markets currently price a 65% chance of a September Fed pause, alongside strong December hike expectations. Ongoing US debt concerns sustained underlying debasement demand, while geopolitical escalation in Eastern Europe kept oil prices elevated.

First resistance is seen at $4610, with initial support near $4535.

Yen Struggles Near 159.40

The Japanese yen hovered near 159.4 per dollar on Friday, unable to sustain momentum from recent intervention due to underlying structural weakness. Broad interest rate differentials continue driving carry trades, alongside fiscal concerns and high oil prices. However, rising Tokyo inflation and dropping unemployment to 2.4% keep Bank of Japan September rate-hike expectations growing.

First resistance is seen at 159.70, with initial support near 159.00.

Sterling Falls Below $1.36

The British pound dropped below $1.36, pulling back from six-month highs as lower crude oil prices relieved inflation concerns and pushed Bank of England rate hike bets into 2027. Traders currently price only a 15% probability of a September move despite UK inflation reaching 2.9% in July. Markets now await Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for US interest rate direction.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3630, with support around 1.3540.

Silver Falls Below $69

Silver fell below $69 per ounce on Friday, pulling back from previous gains as investors awaited Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for interest rate guidance. Markets now price a 65% chance of a September Fed pause, alongside high December hike odds. Meanwhile, ongoing US debt concerns provided underlying debasement support, as rising Russia-Ukraine tensions kept oil prices elevated.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $70.00, while support is located around $68.20.