Markets opened the week with mixed performance as traders weighed expectations of Fed rate cuts against deepening global trade tensions.
The euro edged higher while the pound softened amid risk aversion. The yen fluctuated sharply as safe-haven demand surged, and gold steadied near a three-week low. Silver rebounded from recent losses on renewed safe-haven interest. Uncertainty over global growth and tariff risks continues to keep major assets range-bound.
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 09:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | -0.9% | 2.0% |
| 12:00 | GBP | Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Mar) | 7.33% | |
| 22:00 | USD | Consumer Credit (Feb) | 15.20B | 18.08B |
The EUR/USD rose 0.03% to $1.0967 in Asian trade, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts amid U.S.-China trade tensions. However, gains were limited by concerns over European growth and global trade disruptions. Without signs of market stability, the pair may stay range-bound under risk aversion pressure.
Key resistance is at 1.1100, followed by 1.1150 and 1.1215. Support lies at 1.1000, then 1.0850 and 1.0730.
| R1: 1.1100 | S1: 1.1000 |
| R2: 1.1150 | S2: 1.0850 |
| R3: 1.1215 | S3: 1.0730 |
The yen fluctuated on Monday, rising to 145 per dollar before easing to 147, as global trade tensions and reciprocal tariffs triggered market volatility. Fears of a global recession drove demand for safe havens like the yen, Swiss franc, and bonds. Japan’s February wage growth offered some optimism, and the Bank of Japan is still expected to raise rates this year despite ongoing uncertainty.
Key resistance is at 147.00, with further levels at 152.70 and 157.70. Support stands at 145.60, followed by 143.00 and 141.80.
| R1: 147.00 | S1: 145.60 |
| R2: 152.70 | S2: 143.00 |
| R3: 157.70 | S3: 141.80 |
Gold steadied around $3,030 per ounce on Monday after falling over 1% to a three-week low. The drop sparked speculation that investors were taking profits or covering losses amid broader market declines driven by recession fears from escalating trade tensions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs could raise inflation and slow growth, underscoring challenges for policymakers.
Key resistance is at $3,050, followed by $3,085 and $3,105. Support stands at $2,980, then $2,930 and $2830.
| R1: 3050 | S1: 2980 |
| R2: 3085 | S2: 2930 |
| R3: 3105 | S3: 2830 |
The GBP/USD pair dipped 0.11% to $1.289 in Asian trading, pressured by global recession fears and rising U.S.-China trade tensions. While expectations of Fed rate cuts have weighed on the dollar, the pound remains weak amid economic uncertainty and an unclear Bank of England outlook. With no strong catalysts, GBP/USD may stay vulnerable, especially if risk aversion intensifies.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3000, resistance levels are at 1.3050 and 1.3120. Support is at 1.2900, followed by 1.2850 and 1.2800.
| R1: 1.3000 | S1: 1.2900 |
| R2: 1.3050 | S2: 1.2850 |
| R3: 1.3120 | S3: 1.2800 |
Silver rebounded Monday, rising 2.3% to $30.22 an ounce after hitting a seven-month low. The recovery followed sharp market volatility and recession fears from rising U.S.-China trade tensions. While silver benefits from safe-haven demand, its industrial use remains a weakness. Broader market sell-offs could keep price action choppy, but intensified risk aversion and Fed easing could support silver demand.
If silver breaks above $30.90, resistance levels are at $31.40 and $32.50. Support stands at $29.00, followed by $28.40 and $27.50.
| R1: 30.90 | S1: 29.00 |
| R2: 31.40 | S2: 28.40 |
| R3: 32.50 | S3: 27.50 |
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Sharply in JuneAmerican households showed renewed optimism in June, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey. The headline Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5, an increase of 8.3 points from May. This marks the strongest reading since February and surpassed market expectations.
Detail
Gold Nears Records and Dollar Rebounds Amid Geopolitical Tensions (16 - 20 June)The US dollar index rebounded above 98.2 on Friday but remains down for the week. Gains followed Israel’s strike on Iran, increasing safe-haven demand. Earlier weakness came from soft US inflation and trade tensions, raising Fed rate cut expectations. The euro fell to $1.15 after hitting a 3.5-year high, as ECB signaled a pause and the Fed eyed cuts. The yen rose to 143 per dollar on safe-haven flows, with BOJ signaling possible hikes. The pound dipped to $1.35 after weak UK GDP and jobs data, though supported by a softer dollar.
Detail Week Starts with Geopolitical Risks Lifting Safe Havens (06.16.2025)Markets began the week on a cautious note, with heightened tensions in the Middle East supporting demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. Investor sentiment remained sensitive amid escalating conflict, particularly following Israel’s strikes on Iran, which have intensified regional uncertainty.
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